The Geopolitics of H-1B Visas
A visa fee that could rewrite global talent flows
H-1B, the coveted visa to enter the US, has been in the spotlight for almost a decade. Even during Donald Trump’s first term as US President, he lambasted the H-1B program. Some even said it is a way for American companies to bring in cheap labor from abroad. This was initially debunked, as the average H-1B salary was $129,000 (in 2022), while the median US salary was $61,000. Except, then, new reporting found that H-1B visas are being used by many non-tech sectors in the US, which rely on “staffing agencies,” which often do bring in cheap labor under the H-1B program.
This brings the situation to last week, when the White House introduced a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas.
Starting on September 21, employers must pay this fee when filing a new H-1B application. If it is not paid, the employee will not be allowed into the US. This “shock policy” resulted in a stunning video circulating of H-1B holders deboarding an Emirates flight heading to the US from India after the new rules were passed, as their employers instructed them to stay put.
So far, all of this is purely about business and foreign talent. However, what is taking place with H-1B visas in the US draws in geopolitics. At a moment when the entire world is fighting for critical talent—like AI, biotech, or robotics—any action by the US to limit talent has a corresponding effect on the rest of the world. Equally important, the geopolitics is not about foreign talent going to other parts of the West. In fact, this is unlikely (discussed below).
👁 GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT ON IMMIGRATION
The geopolitics of H-1B visas is about the consequences of America’s new rules and how they are likely to reverberate across the globe, beyond talent, immigration, and hiring practices in the US. The new visa rules are another sign that “vertical globalization” is in full swing, as the world’s largest economies establish “walls and barriers” that limit integration.
Equally significant is that by imposing a fee to deter US companies from hiring foreign workers, the US government is “testing itself.” The pressure is on American firms to hire Americans. Except, does America have the talent it needs? In the middle of 2023, the Taiwanese chip giant TSMC made a startling announcement. As it was building a new chip plant in the US, part of Western-Taiwanese efforts to insulate against future chip disruptions (like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan), TSMC could not find adequate chip talent in America. This pressure was so significant that TSMC delayed the opening of its Arizona plant from 2024 to 2025. The plant was again delayed to open in 2027 or 2028.
Are other American companies going to experience TSMC’s dilemma? And if so, will this jolt Washington into rethinking its education system and the literacy levels of its population?
This aside, a $100,000 fee—which may or may not deter hiring—changes America’s standing and relationships. It is a fundamental inversion of an economy that has grown and thrived in large part on the world’s top talent having unfettered access to the world’s largest economy. This might no longer be the case, changing how the US and other economies function.
H-1B GEOPOLITICS
There are several ways H-1B visa changes could quickly become geopolitical.
Future of US-India relations: First, the relationship between the US and India has been shaken because of US tariffs/sanctions over Indian purchases of Russian energy. This has hijacked over 30 years of American geostrategy to embrace India. It culminated in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting China after seven years, standing alongside his Chinese and Russian counterparts, effectively telling the West that New Delhi had levers it could pull. But now, the US-India relationship is being jolted by visas and immigration. This could be more challenging than the energy sanctions. Because, the energy sanctions are about the US trying to change the position of the Indian government (stop buying Russian oil). Of course, this is not possible. Of the 5 million barrels of oil India imports every day, around 2 million (40%) are supplied by Russia. This cannot be reversed or changed in a matter of weeks. Yet, now, with the H-1B changes, it is India trying to change the position of the American government. On one hand, this could enable India to negotiate better—America restores the old H-1B rules, India agrees to a multi-year drawdown of Russian energy purchases. The probability of that, however, is extremely low. That leads to the other hand, where alongside India-Russia ties, the movement of Indian talent starts to destabilize the relationship between Washington and New Delhi. The Indian side may view the new H-1B rules as discriminatory and jeopardizing key economic flows between the US and India, including remittances, foreign investment, and more. The latest H-1B move could make it even clearer to India that the old US-India dance is gone, and something new and less friendly is forming. And, surrounding all this, is whether India will retaliate and attempt to punish America for H-1B changes, including by going after American firms in the Indian market.
Asia, Middle East > Americas, Europe: There are big questions around where H-1B holders from India and elsewhere will go. Some in the West have proposed that these individuals will come to markets like Canada and the UK. But, there is another possibility. They might instead go to places like Dubai, Singapore, Tokyo, Hong Kong, or even stay put in India. All of these non-Western locations have one thing in common: they are all in the Middle East and Asia. This means that the next talent movements could remain within specific regions of the world. And, in the calculations H-1B holders make, picking Dubai over London or Tokyo over Paris, the Americas and Europe will be “left out.” The talent lifeblood could start to circulate within Asia and the Middle East, not outside of it. This gives Asian and Middle Eastern states a huge advantage. And at a moment when the West questions its economic competitiveness, like with the Draghi report in Europe, which calls for 800 billion euros of additional annual spending within the EU, the loss of top talent could have a cascading effect: less new startup growth, less Global South-focused innovations, etc. Talent, like H-1B, could drive a new era of integration between Asia and the Middle East, whilst causing Western markets to stumble.
Broader immigration rethink: What is taking place with H-1B, and in tandem, the broader political and social situation in the US, could convince many other groups of immigrants that America is not where they should go. This is also about millennials and Gen Z in other countries rethinking their aspirations in the US. For America, immigrants are pivotal. A study of 582 billion-dollar startups in the US found that 55% have at least one immigrant co-founder, with India being the main origin country. Meanwhile, 65% of top AI firms in the US have been started by immigrants. A separate analysis, from 2012, found that 52% of startups in Silicon Valley are started by immigrants, where once again, India was the main supplier. This connects multiple elements: economic competitiveness, America’s own local talent pool, and the changing perception of America in the eyes of the world. Can America compete and thrive if global immigrants start to move differently? There are now big questions as to what people across the world—H-1B tier and others—will do next. And, for America, disrupting the H-1B could be easy compared to the fallout felt over decades, if hundreds of thousands (even millions) rethink the US for other markets. Can the US compete with China in AI without immigrants?
Rise of geopolitical immigration? Behind the state of flux around H-1B, the conditions are forming for “geopolitical immigration”—where people move and relocate on the back of their nation’s geopolitical alignment or objectives. For example, in the case of India, the Indian government is reopening to China and has an informal alliance with Russia. Could the Indian government begin to push its people into those markets over the US (and the West)? This becomes even more likely if Europe sanctions India, which some have warned could be on the horizon after the Indian military attended Zapad-2025 drills, where Russia and Belarus simulated a nuclear strike on an “enemy state” (i.e., the US, Europe). If Europe joins America in punishing India, the Indian government could start to direct the flow of its people, pushing them into “friendly territories” over those where tensions are flaring. As the US locks horns with allies and adversaries, other countries might join the geopolitical immigration bandwagon, from Europe trying to steer its people beyond America to Asian capitals, including South Korea, deterring its talent from leaving for the US. Once again, is America thinking about these variables as it takes action on immigration? And, opposite, could nations start to use immigrants as a tool to build relations in other countries, like Europe steering its people to the Middle East or parts of Asia as part of a broader Indo-Pacific strategy?
H-1B & The West
There is a growing number of folks saying with certainty that the displaced H-1B talent will venture to other parts of the West.
This is not how it works. The best talent in the Global South often goes to the US and Australia first. These people are the 1%, some of the most talented in their fields and countries (and this is why many developing states want these people to stay and not leave).
However, when access to the US is restricted, they do not automatically flock elsewhere.
A classic example is Trump 1.0, which resulted in a small amount of top-tier talent going to Canada. These people were never interested in Canada before (it was an afterthought). Most importantly, they never stayed. Once they arrived and saw how different the Canadian market was - risk-averse, small economy, a fraction of the innovation in the US or Asia - they left.
Fast-forward to today, and the world is a different place in Trump 2.0. As mentioned before, if H-1B holders cannot access the US, there is a higher likelihood they will go to places like Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, or stay put in India. This means that there will be huge gains. But it may not be Western markets that benefit.
All of this pours cold water on those in the West who believe “huge wins” are on the horizon just by leaving the door open, while America closes it. If America is not accessible, top talent will rethink everything.
Equally important, if countries like Canada are simply riding on the shockwaves of America, but have no other strategy to attract and retain the world's top talent, which is connected to a broader economic strategy to remain relevant in the world, then what can be achieved is even more in the air
If the US is inaccessible, are other Western countries really where top talent wants to go?
Conclusion
On face value, America’s H-1B change does not seem geopolitical. But, it is more geopolitical than most realize because it has to do with the flow of people—the most sensitive “assets” of any nation. When people are being mistreated or their fortunes sour, governments are often activated. They view this as more significant than trade bans or diplomatic tensions.
What the US has done is not just about Indian talent. It is about global talent—and the countries they originate from. At a moment when nationalism is flaring, economic populism is returning, technological revolutions are speeding up, and the global economic outlook is dimming, a sudden reversal on a key immigration policy will not remain isolated.
It will have a domino effect on everything else. And for the US specifically, it faces a new herculean task of rebuilding America without the same dynamism and energy of the past, when immigrants were allowed in. The big question in front of Washington is whether in the future it decides to change its immigration policy, returning to what it was before 2025.
Yet, by this time, it could be too late. Other nations might have scooped up the talent. Other governments might have restricted access to America. And suddenly, it could be the US knocking on the world’s door to access what it was once given without limits.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
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