H-1B, the coveted visa to enter the US, has been in the spotlight for almost a decade. Even during Donald Trump’s first term as US President, he lambasted the H-1B program. Some even said it is a way for American companies to bring in cheap labor from abroad. This was initially debunked, as the average H-1B salary was $129,000 (in 2022), while the median US salary was $61,000. Except, then, new reporting found that H-1B visas are being used by many non-tech sectors in the US, which rely on “staffing agencies,” which often do bring in cheap labor under the H-1B program.
This brings the situation to last week, when the White House introduced a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas.
Starting on September 21, employers must pay this fee when filing a new H-1B application. If it is not paid, the employee will not be allowed into the US. This “shock policy” resulted in a stunning video circulating of H-1B holders deboarding an Emirates flight heading to the US from India after the new rules were passed, as their employers instructed them to stay put.
So far, all of this is purely about business and foreign talent. However, what is taking place with H-1B visas in the US draws in geopolitics. At a moment when the entire world is fighting for critical talent—like AI, biotech, or robotics—any action by the US to limit talent has a corresponding effect on the rest of the world. Equally important, the geopolitics is not about foreign talent going to other parts of the West. In fact, this is unlikely (discussed below).
👁 GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT ON IMMIGRATION
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