The old BRICS is gone. A new BRICS is forming, one that is foreign to the bloc itself and the world.
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INDIA’S OPPORTUNITY?
With the Russian and Chinese leaders absent, the latest BRICS gathering had a silver lining. It gave Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi all the spotlight. If Putin and Xi also skip the next gathering in 2026, to be held in India, then New Delhi could end up with huge control over BRICS.
The BRICS group could fast become a geoeconomic lever for India, especially as the country seeks to rival China for leadership in the Global South. The Indian government could utilize BRICS to advance strategic initiatives, such as India’s solar power project, or to integrate the IMEC Corridor within BRICS itself. There are numerous ways India could utilize its influence within the group.
Of course, this comes with separate geopolitical implications.
Countries like Turkey, which joined at Russia and China’s behest, and have friction with India, may refuse to support an India-led BRICS. Such nations could exit BRICS if Russia and China stand on the sidelines and India assumes a more commanding role. Then, India’s neutrality, where it maintains good relations with Western countries and the Global South simultaneously, could put Modi in an awkward position. If India is calling the shots in BRICS, nations like Japan or France, which share strong relations with India, may request an invitation or even membership.
Furthermore, rumors are circulating that Pakistan and China, with support from Bangladesh, are exploring the formation of a new bloc in South Asia that will rival the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), led by India. The Indian government will seek ways to counter this new fragmentation of the region, and BRICS offers an unbeatable card.
All of this will take place over the coming years, and it depends on whether Moscow and Beijing have permanently stepped away from BRICS or are just taking a hiatus. If it is the former, then all eyes will turn to India, as the last commanding major economy in the group.
And while this presents an extraordinary opportunity for India, it also means India will suddenly shoulder a huge responsibility. One of the most critical blocs in the world will be relying on India for leadership, testing India’s readiness and ability to become a global stakeholder.
FUTURE OF BRICS (AND G20)
Of the many consequences stemming from the muted BRICS gathering in Brazil and the decision by both Putin and Xi to skip, the most significant is what the future of BRICS and blocs in general holds. This goes well beyond whether India takes the reins or other nations decide to bow out.
At the core of what is taking place is a reversal in fortunes for BRICS. The very same expectations and aspirations that acted as a magnet, attracting nations from across the world, have now become a hindrance. The bar was set so high that the group itself could not reach it. The “glitz and glamour” distorted the actual reality of BRICS.
If nations like Russia and China can shift their focus from BRICS, then it puts every bloc, both Western and non-Western, in shaky waters. There are two big aspects here. First, nations are losing patience and hope when it comes to blocs and groups, whether it be BRICS or the G7. These forums are no longer yielding results. Second, the new setups that governments are betting on, such as BRICS, have already begun to fall apart. This reflects the rapidly spinning wheel of geopolitics, where solutions and structures that were supposed to last generations are falling apart after just a few years.
However, BRICS being on its last legs means that nations, including Russia and China, will seek other forums for communication and collaboration.
This could lead to the formation of new blocs, similar to what Beijing is exploring in South Asia. However, for others, who are not Western adversaries, the decline of BRICS could shift the focus back to the G20.
A group that was once viewed as paralyzed and inconsequential could be given a new injection of life if BRICS wobbles further.
This last part requires special attention.
While BRICS is not down and out, it is teetering towards the edge. Another “jolt,” such as a border flare-up between India and China or another war in the Middle East, where BRICS watches from the sidelines, will seal the group’s fate. And considering there is an entire year between now and the next summit, a lot can happen to push BRICS off the cliff.
Should the G20 be given new lifeblood, it hands control of global governance back to the West. And herein lies a strange geopolitical paradox: Russia and China supported BRICS to challenge the Western order. But their skipping of BRICS reinforces that very order. By skipping BRICS, Moscow and Beijing may have ceded power to their biggest competitors.
CONCLUSION
When BRICS was created, the world was a different place. Fast forward decades, and BRICS is entering a period of rebirth. What takes place next, like Russia and China stepping out, will shed the old skin of the bloc and give rise to something new, with different dynamics and wiring.
Surrounding the journey of the BRICS is a changing geopolitical atmosphere. What is taking place with BRICS is no coincidence or isolated incident. It is a testament to the growing pressure geopolitics is exerting on governments (and businesses). And how the runway is almost out when it comes to optics, shallow deals, or band-aid solutions. Everybody is now chasing permanent structural changes that can last. This is the new need of the hour.
This puts the spotlight on the blocs, systems, and structures that spin the world. Nobody is doing charity anymore. Nobody is interested in supporting the interests of somebody else. Time for talk and pleasantries is over. The same hang-ups that Russia and China have, others share as well. Instead of BRICS, they might step away from the World Trade Organization (WTO) or reconsider their role within the United Nations (UN). In a very short span of time, nations could begin to walk out the door, fed up with the lack of progress and prescriptions.
The current state of BRICS is a warning to global stakeholders and institutions everywhere.
The era of ideation and exploration is over. The era of concrete action has begun. And if something cannot support concrete action, it will be discarded with little remorse, pushing the globe deeper into an era of self-reliance, sovereignty, individuality, and nationalism.
-ABISHUR AKA “MR. GEOPOLITICS”
Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.
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