BRICS Summit Ends With Rise of "Counter Collective"
The world is missing what just happened in Kazan
As the 16th BRICS Summit ends, many are bigger skeptics than before.
For some, it was much ado about nothing. For others, certain obstacles within BRICS, like the sanctions on Russia, mean little can be achieved. And for others, new realities, such as the rise of rival camps within BRICS, are creating doubts about what BRICS, the world’s most infamous geopolitical bloc, can truly achieve.
Add to this: no BRICS payment system, no BRICS currency, and no “BRICS baskets” (to buy and sell BRICS commodities through) came to light. These were the big projects that many believed would finally transition BRICS from being “just talk” to something real.
While all of this is true, this is a narrow way to look at the recent BRICS gathering.
Looking at BRICS this way, the significance of what took place in Kazan will be missed. Because something extraordinary happened in Russia that few expected.
As world leaders arrived and sat at a circular table, rubbed shoulders, or stood for a group photo, it became clear to those who wanted to see it: BRICS today is what the G20 was just a decade ago.
The BRICS gathering in Kazan had the energy, momentum, and excitement that the Western alternative used to offer. As BRICS added 12 nations as “partner states,” like Malaysia, Indonesia, Bolivia, Nigeria, Algeria, and Turkey, a growing part of the Global South is betting on BRICS to represent them in a new way and foster relationships and connections impossible in Western-dominated forums.
In many ways, these ideas were the “building blocks” of BRICS. So what took place in Kazan is effectively a return to the drawing board.
At the center of this, is a massive transformation. As BRICS has met over the years, the focus has been on five countries, and the challenges that follow them. However, in Russia, BRICS had a new “skin.” Suddenly, BRICS was no longer just about five nations (plus some others).
It was about a new collective. BRICS has morphed into a geoeconomic forum.
This is being missed by the world. It shouldn’t be. A forum is far different than a bloc. And, what makes a forum successful is far different than what makes a bloc successful.
There are five ways BRICS has proved the naysayers wrong and, through Kazan, unveiled itself to be a geopolitical force that nobody will be able to ignore or deny going forward.
1. NARRATIVE RESET
It was initially assessed that 24 leaders would attend the BRICS Summit in Russia. However, Moscow has played host to 36 world leaders, alongside the head of the United Nations (UN). This is the largest geopolitical gathering that Putin has held since he began the Ukraine war.
Consider that 36 is quite closer to the number 45, the number of nations who have sanctioned Russia.
A strange “geopolitical equilibrium” has been achieved. One part of the world is trying to eject Russia, while another part of the world is starting to integrate with Russia, even embracing Moscow at times.
The BRICS Summit has effectively “relegitimized'“ Russia in the world.
Before the summit, the onus was on Russia to prove it still had friends and was not isolated. Now, after the summit, the onus is on the West to prove that its sanctions and geopolitical efforts are working and that Russia is increasingly “alone” on the world stage.
The summit in Kazan has “reset” the narrative that countries at odds with the West, from Russia to Iran to Venezuela, or who have growing friction with the West, like Turkey, have no place in the global community. Instead, these nations are creating a community - or a collective - of their own.
2. DIPLOMACY BROKER
India and China squashed an almost half-a-decade-long feud on the eve of the BRICS Summit and then held their first bilateral meeting since the 2020 border clash in the Himalayas (covered more below).
This is not just a massive win for New Delhi and Beijing. It is also a big win for Russia and BRICS.
Russia is suddenly wearing a new hat, brokering a temporary peace between the world’s two emerging superpowers. Without Russia, and in particular, without the personal relationship that Vladimir Putin has with Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping, it is hard to imagine such a detente being achieved.
But BRICS is experiencing perhaps a more significant win, that nobody is discussing.
For the first time, a major geopolitical flashpoint has been partly resolved within the borders of BRICS. This has never happened before. Considering other non-Western geopolitical blocs, like the Russian “Collective Security Treaty Organization” (CSTO), have been paralyzed by flashpoints (i.e., Armenia-Azerbaijan), BRICS is now on the other side of the court.
Many nations that attended the events in Kazan and observed the rapprochement between Modi and Xi, might view BRICS as the vehicle to solve geopolitical problems.
Another big flashpoint squarely in BRICS is Egypt-Ethiopia.
This flareup has been simmering for some time after Ethiopia built a dam on the Nile, which Egypt said threatens its freshwater supplies. Add to this, Ethiopia has signed a deal with Somaliland, a breakaway region largely recognized as part of Somalia.
Except, to regain access to a port, Ethiopia might recognize Somaliland, changing the dynamics of the region. In response, Egypt has bolstered its relationship with Somalia and Eritrea (the latter of which was part of Ethiopia until 1993), creating fears of conflict and collision throughout the region.
After India-China, BRICS might turn to solving Egypt-Ethiopia. After that, it could be Saudi Arabia and Iran, especially as Tehran claims it is holding joint-drills with Riyadh in the Red Sea (a claim that Saudi Arabia is yet to verify).
All of this was impossible or purely conceptual just a short time ago, but after the “geopolitical reset” between Modi and Xi, BRICS is wearing the hat of a “diplomatic broker,” and it is not far off to imagine others seeking diplomatic help from BRICS in the near future.
3. BLOC UNITY
A big consequence of the India-China resolution is that the BRICS is more united than it has ever been. The fight between New Delhi and Beijing was the biggest handicap facing the group.
The resolution of the 2020 border tensions does not mean BRICS is without wrinkles. But it does mean that the three core members - Russia, India, and China - can move in a more united way.
In fact, those three members represent “RIC,” a separate bloc that was imagined in 1996 by Yevgeny Primakov, then-prime minister of Russia. The last time RIC leaders met was in 2019, on the sidelines of the G20.
Without unity between Russia, India, and China, BRICS cannot achieve anything. But, what may be on the horizon, is a restart of “RIC” within BRICS itself. With more unity, BRICS can take up positions that were not possible before.
However, this is a tricky maneuver.
There remains a myriad of issues that could bite BRICS next, in particular the situation between Israel and Iran, disputes in the South China Sea, and India benefiting from Western governments rerouting supply chains away from China. In parallel, India and China are far from best friends, and on a long enough timeline, New Delhi and Beijing are likely to clash once again.
However, for now, BRICS is more unified than it has been since it was conceived. This is wind in the sails and will be capitalized on by BRICS members, especially the next hosts, for however long it lasts.
4. GEOPOLITICAL BALL
By formally adding Iran, BRICS is putting the “geopolitical ball” in the court of Israel, Gulf states, and the West.
Iran was added as a full member, while every other nation was added as a “partner state.” This was no coincidence. And, it required full consent of the core BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).
By doing this, BRICS (and Russia) are signaling to the West that they are behind Tehran, even as Iran enters its most significant geopolitical juncture in decades. As Israel prepares to retaliate for the October 1st attacks, where Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles at Israeli cities and military bases, deeper integration has taken place between Iran and BRICS.
While BRICS has been silent so far, it might not be silent in the future.
The dynamics in front of Israel (and the US) have changed. It is no longer a unilateral fight, simply between Israel and Iran.
By striking Iran, Israel will be striking BRICS. This is the same as if a nation struck Italy - they would also be striking the groups that Italy is part of, from the G7 to NATO.
This calculation has never existed before. If Israel’s attack destabilizes the Iranian economy/or the entire region, Israel will be jeopardizing the interests of many BRICS nations, who may feel Tel Aviv has taken the situation too far.
However, there is another side to this.
By formalling adding Iran, BRICS is standing behind Iran. And, standing behind Iran, may also mean turning a blind eye to Iranian proxies. Compounding the issue is that Turkey, one of the most outspoken critics of Israel in the world, has become a BRICS partner. This could generate a new “alliance” between Iran and Turkey within BRICS against Israel, complicating the geopolitics of the Middle East.
It means adding Iran is a double-edged sword. It expands the BRICS footprint. But it also exposes BRICS on multiple fronts, from an Israel-Iran fight to the destabilizing actions of Iranian proxies.
5. NEW TANGENT
New geopolitics is forming out of BRICS.
Whether it is India-China starting a new chapter in their relationship, Turkey-Iran standing united against Israel, or Egypt-Ethiopia resolving their differences, the next geopolitical shifts across the globe could be conceived within BRICS.
The inception of a new geopolitical status quo around the globe could be BRICS.
This represents the extraordinary power that the group has. The ability to bring about a new geopolitical chapter in regions has been reserved with groups like the United Nations (UN) or just with superpowers like America.
But now, the agreements and breakthroughs within BRICS, will cause regions to “shift gears.”
BRICS members will go off on their own tangent on the back of whatever BRICS inks.
This also redefines the entire concept of “power projection.”
So far, power projection has been about nations projecting their military power outside their borders, like the US being able to deter China in Asia. But, in the new geopolitical climate, power projection is also about the impact that nations/blocs have on regions over time.
As BRICS solves more problems internally, its impact could be felt for decades across different parts of the world. When societies look back on what gave rise to a particular status quo or change, they might point to a BRICS-brokered deal, not a UN, G7, or G20-brokered deal.
This is the BRICS power projection.
ACTIONABLE TAKEAWAYS
BRICS > G20. As long as BRICS is viewed through the lens of payments systems, currencies, or geoeconomic projects, the more BRICS will be looked at as a failure. However, considering the G20 was hailed as a success because of communication and dialogue, why can’t the same be true for BRICS? Viewed through a different lens, BRICS today has more energy and momentum than G20.
New status quo is being created in geopolitics. The two biggest steps that BRICS has taken - resolving the India-China border flareup and, separately, adding Iran as a full member - change the geopolitical status quo in Asia and the Middle East. In Asia, stability is reemerging between the region’s two emerging superpowers. In the Middle East, the flareup between Israel and Iran now draws in BRICS directly.
Like UN, BRICS has diplomatic mandate. Resolving deep-seated tensions is now a forte of BRICS. This has been an area the UN has dominated. But as the global environment changes and governments become more distrustful and suspicious, BRICS is positioning itself as a new diplomatic broker on the back of the Modi-Xi meeting. This means BRICS is now competing directly with the UN.
The Western strategy against Russia may change. Ideas that Russia is isolated or alone or that Western sanctions are eating into Moscow’s relationships have been put to the test by the BRICS Summit in Kazan. The West might realize that its strategy is not working, and this could cause Western capitals to come up with a new game plan to take on Russia.
China’s attendance was largely subdued. Except for photo-ops, and the meeting with Modi, the appearance of China’s Xi was more subdued than usual. It is possible that Xi did not want to take the spotlight away from Putin. But, the reality is also that Xi visited BRICS in the backdrop of a deteriorating geoeconomic environment facing Beijing. Russia, the world’s most sanctioned country, looked far more energized than China, the world’s second-largest economy.
CONCLUSION
The expression “multipolarity” has been thrown around for decades now. At its core, it means that instead of the world being “unilateral” (revolving around a single power like America) it will become “multilateral” (revolving around multiple powers like Russia, China, and India, alongside the US). In such a setup, there will be multiple poles of power in the world (i.e., Washington, Moscow, Riyadh, New Delhi, and Beijing).
This is how the BRICS is positioning its latest summit, as proof that a multipolar world is forming. However, this actually takes away from what BRICS has achieved over the past few days.
Because, multipolarity was bound to happen, regardless if BRICS existed or not. Instead, through a combination of strategy, patience, and luck, BRICS has solidified itself as a “counter collective” to Western-dominated powers and forums. Almost 40 countries attended BRICS, and the list is growing, from who wants to attend to who wants to join.
BRICS has the magnetism today that Western blocs had decades ago.
And even if all that happens in BRICS is conversations and communication, that may be more than enough. Maybe, the rest of the world has set expectations and timelines for BRICS that are impossible from the get-go.
Instead, in a global climate where nations are not talking, where nations are colliding, where nations are distrustful, radical, and skeptical, communication might be the biggest success.
And that is what BRICS has masterfully achieved.
As BRICS leaders fly home, it is America and its allies that will have to deal with the shockwaves. The rise of a “counter collective” changes everything. At its core, it means the world is not waiting for America and its allies and is turning to a new grouping to solve problems.
And that is the biggest takeaway of the 16th BRICS Summit.
A new competition has truly begun over who will solve the world’s problems.
The West, the old captains, with systems and checks and balances, that have spun the world for decades. Or the BRICS, a group of growing powers, who until a short time ago, few took seriously.
-Abishur/Mr. Geopolitics
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The foreign policies pursued by both the Biden administration and Macron, along with their EU allies, have inadvertently triggered a chain reaction that many foresaw. By isolating Russia, they have effectively pushed Putin to spearhead BRICS, which now stands as a formidable counterweight to the West. This miscalculation will likely lead to a realignment of global power, with the West gradually losing its dominant position. The recent BRICS Summit in Kazan marks a pivotal moment in this shift, as nations from the Global South increasingly look to BRICS to represent their interests in a multipolar world. Well said, Mr. Geopolitics! 👍