The G20 has been in a perilous state for years now. Even before the pandemic, it had become more about annual photo ops than a forum for substantial progress on global issues. Add in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the October 7th attacks, and the G20 is permanently paralyzed in many ways.
The cracks are more clear than ever this year, as South Africa prepares to hold the gathering in November.
Since Donald Trump reentered the White House on January 20th, the US has been giving the group the cold shoulder.
Senior officials, from Marco Rubio to Scott Bessent, have skipped G20 summits. Then, on April 12, Trump himself poured cold water on whether he would attend the main event with other world leaders, proposing he could boycott the gathering over South Africa’s treatment of white farmers. Now, Trump has directed federal agencies to pause work on the upcoming G20 conference, severing US involvement in planning and facilitation.
But, it is not just the US involvement that is throwing this year’s G20 off balance.
📣 POPULAR INSIGHTS ON THIS TOPIC
In February, the G20 finance ministers meeting was unable to produce a joint statement, echoing what took place last February, at the same meeting in Brazil, which hosted the G20 in 2024. The issuing of joint statements requires unanimous agreement from all in attendance. Like last year, this year, G20 finance ministers failed to find common ground.
Add to this, it was not just the US representative (Scott Bessent) who failed to attend. Finance ministers from India, Japan, China, and Brazil were also missing which is particularly surprising, considering New Delhi, Beijing, and Sao Paulo are all part of BRICS, which includes South Africa. It was assumed that BRICS nations would support their own.
Then, around the same time as the G20 finance minister’s meeting wobbled, a meeting of G20 foreign ministers, which the US also skipped, could not issue a group photo as European representatives would not share the stage with Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, highlighting how the Ukraine war remained divisive even thousands of miles away.
The G20 is at a critical moment. Depending on what happens at this year’s summit, it may spell the end of the gathering.
Does G20 become BRICS?
Without the US, the nature of the G20 changes. This year, America is unleashing the most global change. Yet, America may not be present. And, if Trump does show up, he is likely to have his agenda, focused on parading his achievements and pushing new ideas (i.e. G20 economies should support America First).
This latter part is critical. Trump’s attendance makes a joint communique incredibly grey, and the US will want the G20 to work as a megaphone that amplifies his ideas and goals.
Of course, America stands to lose a lot if it does not show up. Countries like China and India will soak up the spotlight, romancing and seducing everybody from the EU to Japan. Russia will have free reign, with more allies than adversaries. Countries in the US orbit will attend without America’s shadow over them, resulting in new moves. This means America giving the G20 the cold shoulder could coincide with the G20 effectively becoming a new forum for BRICS, which recently expanded with a roster quite similar in size to the G20.
BRICS nations can push their ideas, and those squarely aligned with America will now be on the defensive. Without the US, the G20, created by the West, may increasingly be used as a vehicle to take on the West, a strange geopolitical switch-up.
End of Global Governance
What is taking place with the G20 represents the end of global governance as the world knows it, a transformation that is taking place as “old globalization” slows and “vertical globalization” (a world full of walls and barriers) takes off.
Whether or not America attends, the G20’s best years may be behind it. And this puts governance in the hands of regions and blocs. This is nothing new. But, such a setup in the current geopolitical environment could lead to rules and systems that are counter to one another.
The end of global governance means the emergence of a truly divided world, where governments, jolted by Trump’s trade and security plays, establish their own “axis” to spin around. For example, a new trade deal between the EU and ASEAN may revolve largely around offsetting America’s disruptive moves. The new economic agreements will be unlike anything seen in the post-World War II era, where governments put the US at the center of everything.
Blocs like BRICS, SCO, and others will ride high as global governance dissolves, as states look for new leadership and stability. In such a context, America stands on weaker ground. Besides the G7, whose roots lie in a collective West, which is on its deathbed at the present moment, the US does not lead any other bloc. Either, the US is once again turning away from its global role. Or, the US may be pushed to unveil new blocs that compete in an age of no global governance.
Conclusion
For South Africa, the optics could not be worse. Already dealing with a deeply bruised relationship with the US, the world is now rethinking the upcoming G20 summit. The rest of Africa is watching closely, as is the rest of the world. But, what happens in just six months, is just as significant for the US.
Next year, America will be hosting the G20. What if the Global South decides to skip, cheered on by South Africa and China?
Nothing is immune to geopolitics today. Everything is being infected. Forums that once stayed above the noise, that were a bright spot for global cooperation and relationships, have descended into the storm.
As geopolitical pressure mounts, the G20 may become the “De20” as key nations pull away and as the geopolitical climate incentivizes groups only made up of like-minded and ideologically aligned nations.
-ABISHUR/MR. GEOPOLITICS
Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.
Have questions or thoughts? Let’s talk: mrgeopolitics@substack.com.
If you like Mr. Geopolitics, your colleagues might too.
Feel like doing something unique for somebody important?