Has Western Politics Hit a Tipping Point?
Something new is beginning
Last night, a close friend called and asked me what I thought of Zohran Mamdani’s speech after his victory in New York City’s mayoral race. “Wasn’t it too anti-establishment?” he asked. “Out of context, maybe,” I replied. “But in context, the people are angry.”
Mamdani’s win is about far more than just socialism. It is what happens when millions of people fall out of love with a particular social and economic design. It is what happens when people reach the point of desperation and seek political solutions that previous generations would have viewed as unthinkable and radical—like socialism in America.
WESTERN CRISIS
Mamdani’s win points to Western politics nearing a tipping point. On the other side is an inversion in how the West works. When Mamdani takes office in January 2026, the global capital of capitalism will be governed by socialism. What does this say about the next rules that will govern the US?
It is not just the US where the tipping point is unfolding.
In France, the shaky politics and budget squeezes have resulted in five prime ministers in just two years, causing the S&P to cut the French credit rating. In Germany, AfD, the nationalist party, is now the most popular party in the country, after being a fringe party just a few years ago. In Japan, Sanseito, the right-leaning party driving a “Japan First” agenda, is now the fourth largest opposition group. Add to this the rise of socialism in America, from Mamdani in New York to Katie Wilson, the socialist mayoral candidate in Seattle, who could end up winning the election held on November 4.
SAME BUT DIFFERENT
The tipping point is a battle between different sects within Western societies. Both believe the role and function of government must change. The difference is what the government should do.
Strangely, Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and President Donald Trump, opposing figures, have more in common than they realize. They are both putting the spotlight on the “forgotten men and women.” For Mamdani, it is the line cooks and taxi drivers. For Trump, it is the steelworkers and farmers. And, both are presenting paths that redesign America from the ground up: socialism for Mamdani, nationalism for Trump.
GENERATIONAL WAR
The tipping point is complex. It is not just a battle between nationalists and socialists, old and young, rich or poor, centrists or extremists. It is also the generational divide that goes beyond millennials vs. boomers.
Earlier this year, when Germany held snap elections, 25% of people aged 18-24 years old voted for AfD—making it the most popular party among youth. In the New York City mayoral race, Mamdani secured 79% of the youth vote (18-29 years old). The same generation is conflicted and polarized between the most extreme political ideas. This is a reality that has only just begun to play out, and points to even deeper divisions within Western societies.
NEW IDENTITY
Surrounding all of this, the West’s chief adversary, China, is not facing the same kind of tipping point (although the nation does face a historic demographic crisis). As Western societies shake, the West’s ability to compete on the world stage weakens. Except, there is no solution. The cat is out of the bag. Different forms of political beliefs are about to spar in the West in ways that few have seen in modern times, redrawing how everything works.
The tipping point, or breaking point, will set the tone for the coming decades, as the West begins to redesign its very identity from the ground up.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
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