🇨🇳✊ The Dawn of New Chinese Nationalism
Once it begins, it will make China unpredictable
“The more Trump raises the heat, the more Chinese society could strike back.”
Towards the end of 2023, China’s infamous technology giant, Huawei, unveiled the “Mate 60.”
It was a big deal for China and the world. Mate 60 was Huawei’s first 5G smartphone in years, challenging US sanctions, from Trump 1.0 and Biden, that had thrown the business off balance. Optics also played a big role. The Mate 60 was launched as then-US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing, an indirect message that “red tape” would not deter Chinese innovation, and America raised the tech limits on China.
However, Mate 60 made headlines for a different reason: nationalism.
Across Chinese internet platforms, netizens paraded Mate 60 as a sign of China’s resolve to fight the US.
One Chinese vlogger even broke apart the phone and made the claim that all components were locally sourced (made in China), later proven false, as Western teardowns showed that 47% of parts were Chinese.
Mate 60 was a sign that in the right geopolitical environment, anything can spark nationalism - even a smartphone.
If the “mild fight” between the US and China a few years ago could fuel national sentiment and pride, then what about the current US-China economic war that will reshape the world and China’s standing?
What is taking place between Washington and Beijing today could fuel nationalism in China on a scale unseen in modern times, indirectly cheered on by Beijing. Most are looking at China’s next moves (against America) from a global lens, but China’s domestic affairs matter just as much.
Nationalism Builds
Already, new Chinese nationalism is bubbling up, as Chinese manufacturers go to Western consumers directly, and reveal the blueprint of expensive luxury goods. With no intervention from Beijing, local makers want Chinese-branded goods to succeed over Western-branded. Surprisingly, Chinese firms are banging a new “China First” drum on the back of Western consumers.
For now, this kind of nationalism is concentrated.
But, it opens the door to other Chinese outfits acting in nationalistic ways. Because so many goods are already made in China, China may put the spotlight on Chinese brands over American. This could mean that instead of Starbucks, consumers could be pushed towards Luckin, instead of Nike, Li-Ning could get the sale, or BYD and Nio could extend their lead over Tesla. Whether through direct appeals to Chinese society, promotions with Chinese platforms, or even new rules from the Chinese government, Chinese companies could become vehicles for Chinese nationalism in a way that jolts Western politicians (and executives).
However, broad Chinese nationalism will be unleashed by the people. This puts the spotlight on a single question: what move, by America, will activate Chinese citizens?
This is hard to predict.
But two things are certain.
First, if Mate 60 is any precedent to go by, then Washington’s punch does not need to be big or nuclear. If the US cuts visas to Chinese students, for example, it could spark a “China First” sentiment and push Chinese netizens to call for boycotts against US universities, which could then quickly snowball into something much bigger. Second, the resurgence in Chinese nationalism is not far off. The US-China economic war is accelerating at record speed. What many believed would take place over years and decades is now taking place over weeks and months. The latest push by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to restart the US shipbuilding sector and put America First at the center of trade with the US, threatens to divide global trade. Such moves will trigger a Chinese retaliation, which in turn, will push America to strike back in quicker and quicker intervals.
Of course, the big grey area is over the Chinese government.
A true wave of Chinese nationalism cannot take place without prodding and pushing from Beijing. Over the years, China has taken a range of “nationalistic moves,” like phasing out iPhones from certain government divisions or pushing for state-backed firms or critical companies to adopt local solutions (i.e. Chinese auto firms having to use Chinese-made chips 25% of the time). Such measures could be expanded or elevated, or new, radical rules could come out, hijacking the operations and footprint of Western firms.
All of this means that the West, already preparing for disruptive Chinese moves, must also prepare for a major overhaul in China itself as nationalism spreads across the society and economy. The more Trump raises the heat, the more Chinese society could strike back.
Specifically for America, this means that the next Chinese punch will take place within China’s borders, beyond Washington’s control.
Conclusion
History is littered with moments when nationalism surged forward in a nation. Often, the common thread linking different times and geographies is a citizenry feeling that their nation is being weakened, exploited, or held down, and a political machine that lambasts what is happening.
Such conditions exist in China, lying dormant until activated.
Strangely, most “events,” like an economic shock, take a different path in democracies versus communist states. However, nationalism is one of a small handful of domestic phenomena that shape nations in similar ways, regardless of ideology or system. Nationalism blurs the line between the state, society, and economy, drives new political outlooks, and puts an “enemy” at the center of national thinking and behavior. This is what is on the horizon for China (as America’s journey into new nationalism has already begun)
While areas like technology, ideology, or finance are watched, as the main skirmishes in the US-China economic war, the world should not overlook the growing tide and power of nationalism. Once it emerges, it cannot be held back. Once it takes hold of a country, like China, it will infect everything.
And once China, through its people and government, positions America as its enemy, the Chinese behavior will radically change, pushing the US-China economic war deeper into uncharted waters.
New Chinese nationalism is one of the biggest geopolitical forces - one that few are watching.
-ABISHUR/MR. GEOPOLITICS
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