Ghost Diplomacy
The hidden reasons America needs to end the war in Ukraine
The end of NATO expansion. A 600,000-personnel cap on Ukraine’s armed forces. Lifting of sanctions on Russia and reinviting Moscow to join the G8. These are just some of the radical ideas in a 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine.
Forget for a moment how unbalanced some of the ideas are.
Adding to the strangeness: the US and Russia are at odds over who actually authored the framework.
(“Ghost Diplomacy” is a concept/expression of Abishur Prakash)
GHOST DIPLOMACY
The US was pointing the finger at Russia, which flatly denied having any knowledge of the plan. Then, however, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged it was a US plan, after some lawmakers said he was distancing himself from the proposed ideas.
This is more than strange.
Often, ending wars is paralyzed by disagreements over territory, resources, etc. Yet here, there is disagreement on where the peace plan came from. Read between the lines: many are hesitant to take ownership of yet another diplomatic attempt to stop the fighting, which could fail.
Except, there is greyness here too.
While uncertainty spreads over who authored the plan, US President Donald Trump has said it is “not his final offer.” Before all this, Trump had given Ukraine until Thanksgiving to accept the plan. All of this implies the 28-point framework was drawn up in Washington.
Then, there is talk that Washington has threatened to cut off intelligence and weapons deliveries if the plan is not accepted. This returns the US to where it was in February, after the blowout between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Once again, the pressure is building on Europe. If America steps away, will European capitals step up?
And in Kyiv, Zelenskyy has addressed the nation, warning that the country is passing through “one of the most difficult moments in history,” as Ukraine has to choose between “either losing dignity, or risk losing a key partner.” Zelenskyy is reading the signals as clearly as anybody else.
Except adding to an already complicated picture, Europe has unveiled a counter-proposal to the plan. Some of the key differences: the clause on ending NATO expansion has been removed, the cap on Ukraine’s armed forces is raised to 800,000, the US guarantees for Ukraine will be similar to Article 5, and Ukraine can join NATO if there is consensus within the bloc.
The plan has already been rejected by Russia, pouring cold water on the entire peace process. The environment around ending the war has become fluid, to put it mildly. There is far too much taking place in too short a window of time.
Right now, the dice rolls 30/70.
Either the US, Europe, Ukraine, or Russia will find a truce in some amalgamation of plans (30). Or, all sides will descend into rejection and deflection (70).
However, missing from the public discourse is the US geopolitical strategy by directly or indirectly proposing a plan that is so radical and extreme that it will immediately be met with rejection in Europe.
At the core of what is taking place is threefold.
#1: NO MORE RUNWAY
First, the clock is ticking on America’s patience with the Ukraine-Russia war.
By February 2026, the war will be in its fourth year. Consider that World War II lasted for six years. There is no clear end date, especially as Russian forces continue to fight over the same frontlines, and strangely, the Russian economy, the most sanctioned in all of history, will grow faster than some Western economies in 2026. And, regardless of Western threats, Russia’s momentum with rising superpowers like India and China continues to grow, the former of which will host Russian President Vladimir Putin in December.
This cannot turn into a new forever war for the US. Officials in Washington need to either end the war or end US involvement in it.
#2: NEXT UKRAINE
Second, the US is acutely aware that another major war is on the horizon that will require tremendous US resources, if not directly involve America.
In the Middle East, Iran is gearing up for Round 2 with Israel, learning from the 12-day war in June, where Iranian missiles briefly overwhelmed the US-Israeli air defenses. The Iranian regime is ramping up missile production to overload Israeli defenses when (not if) the next fight begins. Some analysis says Iran could launch 2,000 missiles in a single volley, a nuclear move. This would force America to step in on an unthinkable level, well beyond targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, threatening a regional war.
Then, there is the growing friction between the US and China, particularly over the Philippines, Taiwan, and now Japan. The Chinese are showing a new confidence, reflected in their rare earth weaponization, that the world has not witnessed. The conditions are forming for an accident or flare-up that forces American military intervention, pitting the US and China directly against one another.
In tandem with all this, the Ukraine war is leading to ideas in Europe, like shooting down Russian fighter jets, that threaten the unthinkable: a NATO-Russia clash. If the war does not end, the probability of this happening rises.
#3: INTERNAL STRIFE
Third, America’s social and political situation is worsening.
National guards are stationed in the capital. Socialist mayors have been elected in New York City and Seattle. The White House could soon collide with the Supreme Court if Trump’s tariffs are knocked down.
Polarization, already at extreme levels, is exponentially rising. After the assassination of Charlie Kirk, there are big concerns as to whether a major political figure on the left or right will be next. And at what point, US society descend into armed fighting. A short time ago, this was purely alarmist. But considering the myriad of radical events rocking American society, the fuse could be ignited faster than few realize. The risk of civil war in America or armed rebellion is steadily rising.
TIMING = LOGIC
None of this makes the headlines as the US, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia spar over how to end the war. But in geopolitics, timing is logic. There is more to the 28-point plan than America being unrealistic or Russia having the upper hand. These are very surface-level, shallow explanations.
In reality, the US is adapting to a radical environment. It needs to regroup. Being overstretched no longer works for Washington. Either the war ends with America’s participation. Or it ends with America’s exit.
That is the message the world is missing.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
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