Geopolitical Neutrality Is Officially Dead. Everybody Must Pick Sides.
A reality few want to accept is now emerging everywhere
Trump’s recent remarks, that countries may have to pick between “us [America] or China” make clear that the era of nations and businesses staying neutral and non-aligned is over.
It has been for some time. Of course, many have tried to remain between poles and borders, a balancing act that has become more and more difficult over the years. But, out of the US-China economic war, pressure is compounding for stakeholders to pick a corner.
Trump is not blind to what is taking place, in particular with South Korea and Japan joining hands with China, or Chinese President Xi Jinping’s tour of Southeast Asia, attempting to convince states like Vietnam to join the Chinese camp. Or, surrounding all this, the EU’s shock move to (potentially) reverse tariffs on Chinese EVs, which at the time threatened to break the EU-China relationship.
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All of these are big geopolitical (and geoeconomic) indicators that trade and tariffs, along with collision with China, are pushing states away from America’s borders and into the hands of US adversaries.
For America, countries joining the Chinese camp is more than unacceptable; it will not be allowed by Washington without a fight.
ANOTHER US-CHINA SHOWDOWN
The door is now open to world powers fighting to bring nations under their flag.
And, in the context of “picking sides,” America is behind China.
The Chinese have many options at their fingertips, from debt-trap diplomacy to green exports to inducting members into coveted blocs (i.e. BRICS), that they can use to steer states into the Sino-sphere. At the outset of Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Vietnam, Hanoi has said it is “open” to joining BRICS. And, in the case of China linking up with Japan and South Korea, alongside navigating Trump’s tariffs, a big focus was on creating new solutions for aging populations (demographics). Demographic solutions are bringing nations together geopolitically.
The US, on the other hand, is in a different boat. The US does not have the same kind of options and levers China has.
This means Trump will play two different cards at the same time to keep or attract nations.
The first is to control access to the US economy, forcing nations who want barrierless entry into America to meet certain demands. In some respects, this has already begun, like Europe having to purchase huge amounts of American energy. But now, Trump is going beyond this, adding China into the equation. Currently, US officials are discussing a range of trade options with 70 countries, including restricting the flow of Chinese goods through their borders in exchange for better trade terms. Meanwhile, in Europe, the US FCC head Brendan Carr is telling governments to pick between US or Chinese communications technology, another prod to pick sides.
The second is external pressure, where Trump attempts to convince its allies and partners that China is not safe, jumpstarting a similar phenomenon that occurred during Trump’s first term with Chinese 5G technology (i.e. Huawei, ZTE), where Washington called for ejection.
Facing the world is the daunting task of leaning towards a particular geopolitical pole. And what this entails. This is not just about redirecting trade, ejecting technology, or controlling inbound investments. This is about moving the nation (or business) onto a particular country’s geopolitical terrain and demarcation lines. The last time this kind of setup existed was before World War I. In the process, countries will be permanently walking away from “old globalization” and ideas like global integration and a world economy that is without limits, accelerating the rise of “vertical globalization” (a world filled with walls and barriers).
If the US gets nations to agree to certain conditions, like cutting down the movement of Chinese goods within their economy, it will represent a herculean challenge for Beijing.
Its entire geoeconomic footprint will be under siege, as governments align with America in a way that permanently rolls back and restricts China. The Chinese will be forced to redirect trade in a new way, towards a different set of nations, further bifurcating the global economy, and accelerating the US-China decoupling. This, of course, could be why China has appointed a new trade negotiator, its former representative to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Li Chenggang, as China prepares to overhaul trade deals across the world, and put pressure on economies to “play by the rules” - a geopolitical irony of sorts.
CONCLUSION
For America, geopolitical neutrality ending should be viewed as a structural change that threatens its ability to call the shots. Hidden behind geopolitical neutrality was that nations were leaning towards America.
Now, there is a growing sense of “culpa lata” in the air.
Governments are shuffling their borders, positions, and alignment, at a speed and on a scale unseen in decades. And, unlike in the past, when America only had to worry about adversaries and enemies moving closer together, now even all-weather allies and partners are stepping onto the “other side.” How does America respond to such an extraordinary turn of events?
For the rest of the world, the clock is ticking, and the hour of decision is fast approaching. Governments and businesses must pick a side before they are forced. And, if no side is picked, a select few must decide whether they are truly ready to fight to establish their own circle and sphere in a world filled with geopolitical disorder.
-ABISHUR/MR. GEOPOLITICS
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