Decoding Trump’s Greenland Play
The REAL reasons for annexation
Let me preface my thoughts below by saying that we are entering an era where unpredictability reigns. All certainty is disappearing. Short-term is the new long-term. Logic is increasingly hidden behind reactivity, emotion, and desperation - if it is there at all.
Add to this, many “experts” are parading ideas that should be shelved. For example, there is no US-China Cold War. There never was. I’ve been saying this for over a decade now. Packaging the US-China fight this way only confuses people when the events today do not line up with the explanations being shared.
All of this applies to US President Donald Trump’s play for Greenland - including the latest deal with NATO, which is strange, because a deal over the future of Greenland is being conducted through a defense alliance, not the EU or unilaterally with Denmark.
It has been repeatedly pointed out that under the existing treaties, America already commands control over the island. The big question: Why does Trump need Greenland if the goal is security? The US already has the security in question. This is where a lot of analysis runs into a wall. This is where some begin to say Trump’s play does not make any sense or that he is a loose cannon.
However, there may be a method to the madness, however painful the madness might be.
Here are my thoughts on what is really going on.
All of this assumes that either the EU rejects Trump’s deal or, even if Europe accepts the framework agreement, down the line, America annexes Greenland anyway.
1. Elevation > Reinforcement
Nations no longer want to rely on another nation or alliance for anything critical or strategic. The new US geostrategy likely imagines a future of heated rivalry with China and Russia or even a Western breakup. To guard against this, the US needs a new kind of footprint and access that the current setup does not grant - and that allies and partners may not be able to provide. Whether it is the Golden Dome or new supply chains, the US needs to control land and lanes that can elevate, not reinforce, America’s defenses, and secure the US against the heated geopolitics on the horizon.
2. Control Future Trade
By seizing Greenland, holding Venezuela, and shifting the focus to the Western Hemisphere, the US is moving to control the North and South portions of the Americas. Part of this is about ejecting China from America’s backyard. But, another part is also about controlling the next strategic trade lanes that governments are building: Arctic, Nicaragua, the Mexico Canal (that passes through the “Gulf of America”). Equally important, through Venezuela, America may have established a new way to pull West Africa into the Americas. All of this together gives America extraordinary control over future trade routes that were supposed to challenge US control over the world.
3. It Is Security, But Economic Security.
Trump’s constant mention of “Greenland” and “security” has created tunnel vision. It is not just about missiles, bases, and warships. The invocation of security is also about economic security. This is a big missing piece in the conversation. Controlling Arctic shipping lanes or seizing Venezuelan oil is about economic security for America. This is a huge paradigm shift. It means the new core driving America’s geopolitical rationale is economic security enforced through hard power. This is, of course, quite a paradox. It is economic security over national security, but in a world where geopolitics trumps economics.
4. End of American Burden Sharing
Setting the goal of annexing Greenland does not come without huge gaming and scenario planning of the shockwaves. Of the many, the Western alliance may implode. Not necessarily overnight or in the short term. However, within a decade, Europe may have irreversibly decoupled from the US, meaning that NATO could be paralyzed, intelligence sharing hijacked, America’s security umbrella rolled back, and more. On paper, and for most Western capitals, this is dystopian. But, for some in the US, looking at the world through America First, the old setups are no longer beneficial. If annexing Greenland can also break America from these arrangements (or burdens), it may make annexation more attractive, not less, a shocking reality.
Conclusion
Many are looking for the missing piece to understand why America wants Greenland. What is the big secret that underpins the US pursuit of the Danish island? But the secret may be that there is no secret. It is not about resources. It is not as simple as a “land grab.” The truth is there in plain sight: economic security, future geoeconomic competition, raising, not reinforcing, American power, and cracking if not ending the post-World War II setup.
So far, most questions have sought to make sense of why the US wants Greenland. But this is not where the spotlight should be. Instead, it should be on what happens after America gains control. What will the world look like when Greenland is pulled into the US corner?
While there is some clarity on Trump’s logic, there is zero certainty on what happens next. And that is the real risk.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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