A New Era of Sanctions Begins

Nobody is safe from the "geopolitical red tape"

When the Ukraine war began, the West activated its biggest sanctions barrage in history. Within a short time, Russia was the most sanctioned nation in the world, besieged by anywhere from 18,000 to 24,000 sanctions.

The Western sanctions drove a new geopolitical fragmentation. They had two main objectives: to squeeze the Russian economy and force Moscow to the negotiating table (and end the war) and, simultaneously, to isolate Russia by putting economies in the Western crosshairs if they traded with Russia.

By all accounts, none of these objectives have been met. In 2024, the Russian economy grew 3.6%, faster than every G7 nation combined, including the US, which grew at 2.77%. The 3.6% growth clip is also quite close to the total growth rate of the G7 in 2024 minus the US (4.51%).

As for Russia’s isolation, most of the world has not stopped trading with Russia. In fact, recently, India and Russia inked their largest oil deal in history, where Rosneft, the Russian state-owned oil firm, will supply the Indian conglomerate Reliance with 500,000 barrels of crude oil every day.

Observing all this, instead of pausing, the West is doubling down.

Just like in February 2022, when the West entered a new chapter in sanctions, the West is now beginning to turn a new page. What is about to begin could make the old game of sanctions look like child’s play. The new “geopolitical red tape”¹ could make everybody spin.