When The Clock Strikes 8:00pm
It could guarantee Europe enters the war
Short of some breakthrough in the coming hours, it is almost guaranteed that the US will strike Iran’s critical infrastructure tonight. While President Trump has specifically called out Iranian bridges and power plants, I suspect there are other targets too, including remaining dual-use factories or strategic railways that connect Iran to the external world.
The end goal will be to indefinitely paralyze Iranian society to the point where millions revolt and overthrow the regime. But remember, regime change was never the objective. The objective was…
It is possible that within the next 24-48 hours, America will declare victory and exit the conflict. Yes, that would mean the US-Israeli campaign ends, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Of course, an “exit” is not simple (explained below). Because if the US follows through with sending Iran back to the Stone Age, Iran will respond in kind:
Striking electrical grids, desalination plants, schools, waste treatment facilities, strategic highways, sites housing reserves of food, oil, water, and more throughout the Middle East
Iranian submarines severing internet cables in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and Indian Ocean, causing what I call a “tech blackout” throughout the region as services go offline
Through the Houthis, Iran turns the Red Sea into a warzone by closing the Mandeb Strait, creating a dual trade crisis
The IRGC going unhinged, sending ground forces into neighboring states or attempting to strike US bases in Europe with long-range weapons
The Iranian response will define how much the US can actually exit the conflict.
Remember, the US has a formal mutual defense treaty with Qatar. And an implicit obligation to defend Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain. If these nations go dark, their first call will be to the White House. Not just to restore power but to retaliate against Iran.
Should Iran destroy critical tech infrastructure, it could cascade into a tech-driven economic and financial crisis in New York and Silicon Valley. Can America truly “exit” the war if its technology sector is under attack?
However, it is the third strategy - closing Mandeb Strait - that could almost guarantee the war cannot end. And, that the war goes global.
The moment Mandeb Strait closes, so does the Suez Canal. The moment Suez closes, it exponentially raises the likelihood that Europe will enter the war. Why? Because around 10% of European goods flows through the Suez Canal. This includes 90% of Qatari LNG imports.
The very help that America has been demanding from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and others could come naturally when Mandeb Strait closes. The Japanese and South Koreans may also send their militaries, as both imports (90% of Japanese oil imports flow through Hormuz) and exports (Asian goods to Europe via Suez) are held hostage by war, compounding current pressures.
Of course, Trump remains highly unpredictable. He could very well walk away from Mandeb and Hormuz in ruthless fashion. However, while Trump may be livid at Europe and Asia, he is steadfast in his support for the Middle East. The US-Arab alliance could be what keeps America’s guns firing at “Iran” - a term that is becoming harder and harder to define. And, US ground troops in Iran remain on the table (and highly likely).
Geopolitics is never black-and-white or certain. There are always blind spots and curveballs. Perhaps revolution actually does sweep Iran after tonight. Perhaps the existing regime collapses. But, perhaps is not definitive. What is definitive is that Iran remains determined to fight. And, after tonight, the US has few good options if the status quo does not change.
Strangely, the US may be hoping tonight determines how the war ends. But, for Iran, it could determine how the war continues.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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