What The Heck Just Happened (With The War)?
Unpacking what happens next with the US, Israel, and Iran
Many are trying to make sense of the past 48 hours. When the clock struck 8:00 pm EST on Tuesday, instead of sending Iran back to the “Stone Age,” as US President Donald Trump had warned, the US, Israel, and Iran had all agreed to a two-week ceasefire, including a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Except, within hours of the ceasefire, the situation quickly changed. Israel launched a deadly strike on Lebanon, killing over 250 people, causing Iran to say that ceasefire talks were inconsequential so long as Israel kept striking Lebanon. The IRGC launched a fresh round of strikes on Gulf states, including on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, critical to shift oil exports toward the Red Sea. The prized Hormuz Strait remained tightly closed. Then, the situation changed again. Israel said it would hold talks with Lebanon, while Iran said it was open to a gradual, albeit concentrated, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, depending on how talks with the US went in Pakistan.
These are a whirlwind of geopolitical events, many of which contradict each other. In all this, everybody is trying to answer the same questions: how did the situation change so dramatically? Is the war ending or not? And if the former, what is the new state of play in the world?
The answer to the first question (how did the situation change so dramatically?) is not black-and-white. While many have labeled America as the loser of the war, the truth is also that Iran could not sustain the fighting indefinitely. And while Tehran threatened to wipe out electricity throughout the region if the US struck energy infrastructure, Iran would have also fallen into historic chaos without bridges and power, becoming a crippled animal still swinging. Put simply, while America has not achieved much from this conflict (rather, it has lost a lot), Iran does not want to keep fighting this conflict if there is a way out. A ceasefire, at this moment, was a win-win. And no, the “madman theory” did not work. Rather, Iran agreed to a ceasefire, not out of fear but opportunity, sensing it could pause the war with the upper hand.
The answer to the second question (Is the war ending or not?) depends on four different events: whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, whether Israel strikes Lebanon again, how US-Iran talks go in Pakistan, starting tomorrow (April 10), and whether a “sudden disruption” takes place. Based on Iran’s 10-point plan, actual progress may not be possible, as Tehran calls for the removal of all US sanctions, the right to enrich uranium, and Iran’s continued control over the Hormuz Strait. This is the polar opposite of US demands. Either the US and Iran will have multiple rounds of talks. Or, the first round of talks will end up in a stalemate, where no side can agree, raising the probability of the war restarting. However, the US does not want to restart military operations. There is no card Washington can play militarily that guarantees a defeat of the regime. If US strikes restart, it would draw America into an endless war, including with boots on the ground.
The answer to the third question (what is the new state of play in the world?) is quite simple: transformational. The Iran conflict has upended how the globe functions on a scale bigger than Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or the October 7th attacks. The Yuan-shipping corridor through the Hormuz is not going away. The enormous windfall that Russia has made is likely to persist well into the future. The Chinese optics of being the only pragmatic and stable economic superpower is unshakeable. The West is completely broken, just look at NATO, and the new atmosphere of the Middle East is one defined by war, not development or vision. Surrounding all this: a global energy emergency that does not end even if the war formally does. The Iran war has rewired the world.
The US-Iran conflict represents a geopolitical turning point for Eurasia.
There is no going back to how things used to be. The next 72 hours are critical. Yet, strangely, whether or not the ceasefire holds does not change what is looming: a complete redesign of alliances, connectivity, and trade. And a world stage where America is viewed very differently than it once was.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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