Venezuela, and The New Great Game
Interventionism meets global upheaval
It all happened slowly and then fast. For months, American warships amassed in the Caribbean, the largest armada in the history of the region. For weeks, US President Donald Trump warned that land strikes would begin. For days, headlines buzzed with a CIA-led strike on a Venezuelan port.
The fireworks ringing in 2026 had barely finished exploding when a different kind of fireworks began.
On January 3, 2026, all three branches of the US armed forces made a daring play to capture and extract the then-President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The operation was like a plot of a Hollywood blockbuster. In the dark of night, US Cyber and Space Commands launched targeted strikes on Venezuelan electrical grids, causing blackouts. Led by Delta Forces, some of the most highly-trained soldiers in the US military descended on Venezuela’s Presidential Palace, fought Venezuelan forces and security services, captured the embattled leader, flew him out of the country, and placed him on a US warship en route to New York to face criminal proceedings in America. Hours later, Trump said the US will now control Venezuela until a proper transitional government can be established.
Global Stakes
This is the biggest geopolitical move by America since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is as significant as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing US-China fight. The last time the US took a step like this in South America was December 20, 1989, when US forces went into Panama to capture Manuel Noriega.
In a matter of days, Venezuela has become the protectorate of America. This is a permanent transformation in how South America works. For more than 20 years, from Hugo Chavez to Nicolas Maduro, successive US administrations have clashed with Caracas. They have sought a change in government. Military action was often met with fears that America would be drawn into a new forever war, this one right in its backyard.
All of these calculations were pushed aside on January 3, 2026.
The US move is far, far bigger than Venezuela, immigration, gangs, or the war on drugs. It is about redrawing the region to bolster US national and economic security.
The door has swung open to a global reshuffling.
Americas 2.0
First, Venezuela could allow the US to redraw Latin America. Anywhere from 25% to 50% of Cuba’s oil comes from Venezuela. As Trump warns Colombia about cocaine mills, Colombian troops have been rushed to the border with Venezuela. The US has repeatedly warned it could start strikes on drug cartels in Mexico. With Maduro’s capture as the backdrop, the next US moves could play out very differently than most realize. This is not about changing regimes. This is about redesigning the region and edging out China (and Russia). This is geostrategy. It is about flushing out US competitors and adversaries from the region. In lockstep, as the US eyes Venezuela’s oil, it is likely to replicate this elsewhere in the region, particularly when it comes to critical metals (i.e., lithium). Of course, none of this comes without serious blowback. As Venezuela is paralyzed, Mexico is now supplying Cuba’s oil needs. Is Mexico City on a collision course with Washington? And if so, all of this may circle back to trade as the USMCA is up for negotiation this summer. A strike on Venezuela could redesign the Americas.
Who Is Next?
Second, the rest of the world is on notice. This is not just about Greenland. The world is on notice, not only about American interventionism, but also about America’s new direction. The US is not engaging allies or institutions. It is putting unilateralism in overdrive. Taking control of Greenland or striking Iran is only the starting point. The world is witnessing a new kind of American ruthlessness, one that could manifest in other areas, from walking away from Ukraine to tearing up recently signed trade deals, from Europe to Japan. Nothing is off the table anymore. Those expecting the international rules and norms to hold are living in a fantasy land. The US, which built those very rules, no longer cares. Accepting the new US outlook is the only way to be clear on what happens next.
Hard Power Returns
Third, many are worried that others, like China, may copy America’s new behavior. But there is another side to the coin. Hard power is returning to the world on a scale that many have feared. Whether it is China making a play for Taiwan, India seeking greater control of Kashmir, Russia salivating at old territories, or a new squabble in the Middle East over land, major powers are not afraid to get bloody. This disrupts every region of the globe. But, for now, it disrupts China. The Chinese have just lost a critical territory in South America in the blink of an eye. All of China’s economic might and military modernization did little to deter Washington. Because, in the arena of hard power, America stands alone. Taking out Maduro was China’s first test. Can it rival American hard power? In Venezuela, the answer is no. Closer to home, the cards are in the air.
Alongside all this, there are two other variables to consider.
a) A new convergence is beginning between law enforcement and geopolitics. The US goal of cracking down on drugs and crime domestically is partly responsible for the toppling of a government elsewhere. This new synergy must be understood. It means that the solution to America’s domestic challenges lies in geopolitics. This is not just about energy security. Cracking down on immigration (i.e., Trump warning that Venezuela has put criminals in American society) has literally pushed the US military into another nation (Venezuela). Where else might America go next because of its domestic headaches?
b) How will success be measured? There are a myriad of objectives regarding Venezuela. Whether it is ejecting China, redrawing the region, cracking down on drug flows, going after cartels, or a mix-mash of everything, there needs to be ways to measure progress. For now, the only metric for America is how loyal the Venezuelan government is to Washington. As it stands, Caracas remains pro-Maduro, raising the prospect of another US strike, a protracted conflict, and even civil war.
Grey Future
Creative destruction is returning with a vengeance. What America has done pushes the globe into even more unfamiliar waters. The West is disavowing the US operation. Institutions like the UN or the International Criminal Court are completely sidelined and more irrelevant than ever. Parts of South America, from Colombia to Mexico, are locked in a new showdown with the US, while Argentina, a close US ally, has to balance its key alliance with regional stability.
Equally important is whether US forces are being stretched thinner than ever. Another flare-up with Iran is all but guaranteed. The Chinese rhetoric around Taiwan is growing bolder by the day. Yet, America’s armada stays planted in the Caribbean. And do not forget, the Ukraine war continues to rage. Can America maintain control over all this at once?
What has happened in Venezuela is a permanent change, for America, South America, and the world. It is a return to the past and a glimpse of the future, where certain shades of imperialism reappear, ideas of military-backed regime change are accepted, and hard power once again determines who calls the shots.
In such an environment, the laws of the jungle govern, and those living by other rules get eaten alive.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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