Next Global Flashpoint: Israel-Turkey
Next Global Flashpoint: Israel-Turkey
World powers caught in crossfire
“For Turkey, Israel is now its biggest adversary.”
On August 2nd, Turkey blocked access to Instagram. The reason: Instagram was censoring content around the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in a covert Israeli operation. With over 57 million users, Turkey is Instagram’s fifth largest market in the world, sparking a new crisis for Meta, Instagram’s parent company, who was suddenly forced to contend with governments sympathetic to Hamas, a terrorist group.
Following the ban, Turkey’s president, Recep Erdogan, called out Western technology platforms, accusing them of “digital fascism” and claiming they were muzzling the voice of Palestinian people.
Viewed in isolation, Turkey blocking Instagram over Hamas is bold (Instagram was subsequently unblocked as Meta and Ankara came to an agreement). But, the block on Instagram was only one move, among several, that Turkey has taken since October 7th, representing one of the biggest geopolitical shockwaves caused by the war between Israel and Hamas.
In many ways, the biggest fight in the Middle East is not just between Israel and Iran but now, also, Israel and Turkey.
For Turkey, Israel is now its biggest adversary.
Under Erdogan, Turkey is viewing Israel’s actions in Palestine as a “grave threat” to its own ideas and interest, from religion to regional clout, forcing Turkey to intervene on multiple fronts. In fact, Turkey’s ongoing support for Hamas is predicated on a belief that, as Erdogan put it, Israel will “set its sights” on Turkey if Hamas is defeated in the Gaza.
This means, on some level, Erdogan believes the Hamas War jeopardizes Turkey’s sovereignty, even though Israel is almost a thousand kilometers from the Turkish border.
Optics aside, like hosting Ismail Haniyeh in April, the moves that Turkey is making against Israel further complicate Middle Eastern geopolitics, forcing the world to recalibrate as a new kind of war begins.
Global Pressure
In December, 2023, South Africa opened a case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ), part of the United Nations (UN), accusing Israel of genocide against Palestine in the Gaza. Since the filing of the case, several other nations have joined, including Spain and Mexico.
Now, Turkey has filed a “declaration of intervention” with the ICJ, in a bid to support the case alongside South Africa.
While the court has to decide whether to accept the addition of other signatories, what Turkey has done sends a clear message: Ankara is joining global action against Israel, in an attempt to use its geoeconomic weight to drive actions in a particular direction.
At the July gathering of NATO leaders in Washington, Erdogan used the forum to call for sanctions against Israel, and even went so far as to say the US was “complicit” in Israel’s actions by “disregarding” what was taking place. Prior to this, in May, Turkey severed all trade with Israel, causing economic flows between the two countries to drop 99%, a move that could draw in the World Trade Organization (WTO), who is fighting to buoy global trade and maintain open commerce in the face of massive geopolitical upheaval.
Turkey is using various forums, including alliances with Israel’s closest partners, to rally support against Tel Aviv. This creates a new challenge for these groups: who do they align with?
For NATO, Turkey’s position is having an immediate effect.
Since the Hamas War began, Turkey has been blocking cooperation between NATO and Israel. Now, Turkey’s escalating clash with Israel also presents an obstacle for the future of NATO.
As Trump seeks reelection, during his first-term, he proposed expanding NATO into the Middle East, while Netanyahu, in a recent speech to US Congress, called for a NATO-style alliance for the region, nicknamed the “Abraham Alliance” (after the Abraham Accords). If NATO expands, or seeks to create a branch revolving around Israel, it will require Turkey’s consent. This is not just impossible in the current climate, but the proposal of such an idea, could be the “final straw” that reorients Turkey away from the defense bloc (and away from the West).
And, as Turkey ratchets up global pressure, international systems, from the UN to the WTO, must tread carefully. With Turkey’s intervention, the calculation changes.
When the ICC proposed issuing arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and leadership of Hamas, the US warned it could sanction the ICC’s leadership, and the UK raised objections, in a bid to block the warrants from being issued.
This was a fight between the West and the ICC.
There was no global power on the other side, warning of consequences if the ICC did not issue the arrest warrants. Now, this all changes, as Turkey could issue its own ultimatums and threats against global institutions who fail to deliver a certain verdict.
All of this aligns with a pledge that Erdogan made in October, when he addressed a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul, draped in the Palestinian flag, and promised to reveal to the world that Israel was a “war criminal.”
The new lens that Turkey is looking at global systems through is its fight with Israel.
New Turkey-Iran Alliance
Of the many moves Turkey is making, one of the most significant is a “reset” between Turkey and Syria, who have been locked in their own war stemming from the Syrian conflict, and which has seen Syrian Kurds attempt to recreate Kurdistan (which would include parts of Turkey).
Now, as the Hamas War drives new Israeli action against Syria, and, simultaneously, the Israel-Turkey flareup worsens, the Turkish government is seeking to normalize relations with Damascus.
This is a calculated chess move. Turkey is ending one conflict, as another one begins.
Turkey is attempting to bring Syria into its corner (even as Ankara conducts military operations in Syrian territory), in a bid to create a new, regional front against Israel, encompassing Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine.
As Turkey moves in this direction, in the background, the conditions are being laid down for a new axis in the Middle East led by Turkey and Iran, two nations who may be united by their mutual dislike of Israel.
This axis, or alliance, made up of two of the Middle East’s most powerful nations, would permanently alter the region. What Ankara and Tehran do, to counter Israel (and Israel’s supporters), could unleash new crisis, such as both sides doubling-down on funding Hamas, or Turkey offering to train mercenaries who could then fight Israel in Palestine or Lebanon.
A tieup between Turkey and Iran also risks drawing in BRICS.
The bloc has already added Iran as a member, and Turkey is on the shortlist to join, potentially later this year. If Turkey joins, BRICS could act as a catalyst for a Turkey-Iran axis.
However, for BRICS, adding Turkey, in the middle of a face-off with Israel, could create a new internal crisis.
One of the group’s three core members, India, regards its relationship with Israel with the upmost strategic importance. Adding Turkey could cause India to feel isolated within the group, forcing New Delhi to look West, as everyone else, from China to Russia to Brazil to UAE, seeks to support Palestine over Israel. An unhappy India, potentially turning to the West, is a scenario that Rusisa and China will want to avert by all means.
Turkey’s fight with Israel is creating its own geopolitical challenges that Ankara will have to face down the line, such as joining BRICS, as other world powers change their calculations.
Complications for US, Middle East, Caucuses
For the US, it faces a tricky balancing act, as one of its closest allies, Israel, faces off against its NATO ally, Turkey. Adding fuel to fire, Erdogan has indirectly proposed sending Turkish forces into Israel and ending the war in the Gaza, echoing what, according to the Turkish leader, Ankara has done in other conflicts like Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.
If Turkey follows through on some of its proposals, shying away from full-invasion, but rerouting resources to proxies, bearing the brunt will be Israel. Based on what Turkey does, the US may have no choice but to intervene, causing the US to face off against Turkey in a way that could fracture the US-Turkey relationship, like America suddenly becoming uncomfortable having its nuclear weapons stationed in Incirlik, the air force base in southern Turkey hosting American nukes.
The Arab-world also faces a new challenging calculation. Before the Turkey-Israel fight, there were only two sides: Israel or Palestine. But, now, supporting Israel (or staying quiet), potentially means going against Turkey (and Iran). But, to win over Turkey, regional capitals may need to actively support Hamas, which means siding with Iran, against the West.
This is something many Arab capitals will not be comfortable with, especially after Iran has threatened to go after countries that shield Israel.
What is taking place between Israel-Turkey could also draw in the Caucuses.
While Tel Aviv and Ankara are on opposite sides when it comes to Hamas, when it comes to Azerbaijan, they are both supporting Baku, the capital.
For Israel, Azerbaijan plays a powerful role, supplying 40% of Israel’s oil through BTC, a pipeline that takes oil from Baku, through Georgia, and into Turkey, where it is then shipped to Israel. Even when Turkey severed trade with Israel, it did not shut down energy exports.
This remains a nuclear option for Turkey. If Israel crosses another Turkish “red line” (i.e. launching an offensive in Lebanon), Turkey could shut down the oil flows. But, this could ricochet. If Turkey plays this card, shuddering exports, it could create a crisis in Baku.
Azerbaijan depends on Israel for advanced weaponry to fight Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This is weaponry that Tel Aviv might withhold until the taps are turned back on, forcing Azerbaijan to collide with Turkey to change Erdogan’s position.
Conclusion
What is taking place between Israel and Turkey is no ordinary fight.
A new flashpoint is being birthed, out of the Hamas War, encompassing everything (i.e. trade, diplomacy, legal, energy) except a physical war.
The stakes for both sides could not be greater.
For Israel, it has to worry, not just about Iran, but also the big moves Turkey could take next. Except, unlike Iran who is isolated and sanctioned, Turkey is a global power, a bridge between Europe and Asia, who the world relies on to varying degrees. This means Turkey can take steps that Iran cannot. For Turkey, it has drawn a line in the sand, put a stake in the ground, and while the fight seems clear and justified today, from the perspective of Ankara, this could quickly change, as Israel (and the US) play their own cards, and respond with their own moves, sparking new crisis and concerns for Erdogan (and his successor).
For now, the focus is on Turkey. What will it do next?
The step taken against Instagram might represent the start of Ankara going after Western businesses who are viewed as supporting Israel. There are other options Turkey has too, for instance, pressuring nations to recognize Palestine by threatening to throttle trade.
As the Israel-Turkey fight plays out, each side must choose how far it is prepared to go, and at what point, either side feels their objectives have been met. And, in this, is a separate issue.
With the fight intensifying, objectives that were clear, could suddenly become distorted, causing the clash to continue indefinitely and spill over in all directions, drawing in geographies that have never planned for an Israel-Turkey fight, and the shock waves such a clash generates.
-Abishur
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