The US Just Redrew the Map of Asia
Three geopolitical takeaways from Trump’s trip that signal a new era
Just one day after US President Donald Trump departed the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, China signed a new free trade deal with the Southeast Asian bloc. While the deal does not dramatically change the nature of China-ASEAN economic flows, it is a battle of optics: China is pursuing free trade, while America pursues tariffs. It is a clear contrast as sparring superpowers attempt to differentiate themselves from one another.
The effect of Trump’s latest trip to Asia will be felt for years to come, as the door has been opened to something brand new. The visit was not about strengthening relations or cutting new trade deals—although they took the spotlight.
Trump’s Goal
Instead, Trump is leading a new push to edge out China in Asia by assembling nations that are squarely in the US orbit. Countries that are neutral or economically leaning towards Beijing are being pushed towards becoming “America First” (more on this later). The deal with Malaysia, discussed below, reflects a new “bloc” that Washington is establishing to deter China. If China seeks an economic showdown with America, suddenly, it will be facing off against the very nations it has been investing in to deal with America.
The ceasefire deal inked by Cambodia and Thailand only reinforces the gravity of what is occurring in the region. A new era of Asian diplomacy has begun as a new “ASEAN Observer Team (AOT)” is launched to oversee descalation between the warring neighbors. The US has changed the purview of one of the largest clubs in the region.
There are three big geopolitical takeaways from Trump’s trip that highlight how substantive the visit was—and the cascading effect it could have on Asia and the world.
Asia Builds America First
First, South Korea has earmarked $150 billion for American shipbuilding. Japan is pouring over $300 billion to build out American nuclear energy infrastructure. The Japanese are investing a further $600 million to upgrade ports on the US coast to enable global crude oil exports. The US has walked away with cash for a new infrastructure drive, funded by allies, in particular Asia.
Countries like Japan and South Korea, to ensure continued protection and alignment, are bankrolling America First thousands of miles away.
New Geoeconomics
Second, new geoeconomics has begun with the US-Malaysia deal.
The deal that Kuala Lumpur and Washington have inked is unlike any geoeconomic deal signed in recent history. This takes Malaysia beyond the “official clauses” that Western states have made towards one another. Malaysia has effectively pegged its economic future to America. The next US sanctions or trade moves must now be mimicked by Malaysia, even if they target Malaysia’s closest partners (i.e., China). Of course, for Malaysia, this is a huge crisis when it comes to economic sovereignty. But for China, this is even bigger.
Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing was pouring billions into the Southeast Asian nation to bolster supply chains, particularly those around technology. The substantial Chinese capital has clearly done little to stop countries from switching sides. The next flare-up between the US and China could see Malaysia “striking” China’s economy.
Japan Reshuffles
Third, with the US support, Japan is repositioning itself.
The new Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has inked a rare earth deal with the US that focuses on “coordinated investment” and on Tokyo supplying critical minerals to global markets. Instead of just importing rare earths, Japan could export them to allied nations. Less than a month into Takaichi’s term, and Japan is moving in a brand new direction. Equally important is Takaichi’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which was quickly sidelined by her meeting with a senior Taiwanese government advisor Lin Hsin-i. Such a meeting would not have occurred without US blessing. This is a huge sign that America is not convinced that the US-China deal has longevity.
US-China Truce Pause?
Of course, much of the spotlight is on the US and China. Here, the world is getting it all wrong: there is no US-China truce. No deal can last. All that happened in South Korea was “strategic breathing room.” The fighting is all but guaranteed to resume in the near future. Even Chinese exporters are reportedly preparing for the fighting to restart. They are diversifying beyond the US market. One business, which draws 80% of its sales from America, wants to reduce it to 20% or less.
There are other ignition points too, including:
The US is threatening massive moves against Russia, including sanctions, to end the war in Ukraine. Except, almost 50% of Russian crude oil goes to China (and India is a close second). Stopping the conflict means punishing China. Queue a post on Truth Social in November threatening China with 100% tariffs?
American assets are building up in the Carribbean, raising the probability of a strike on Venezuela. After leaving Iran out to dry, China might not sit still if Venezuela is struck and chaos follows. This is not just about Chinese energy security (around 90% of Venezuelan oil exports go to China). This is also about regional economic stability. If the US and Venezuela swing, South America gets rocked—and so do the hundreds of billions China has invested/loaned to Latin American nations.
From the insight “Don’t Be Fooled. There Is No US-China Deal.”
Neutrality Disappears
Trump’s trip to Asia changes the state of play in the region. Before his trip, Southeast Asia sought neutrality. Afterward, Malaysia has picked sides. Before the visit, Japan and South Korea were at odds over hundreds of billions of dollars in investment commitments in the US. Afterward, Seoul and Tokyo were funding America’s new infrastructure rollout.
The Asian landscape is rapidly changing.
The question is, who else joins the chorus? Because the biggest takeaway from Trump’s trip to Asia is that neutrality is rapidly disappearing. Everybody now has to pick sides. Japan, South Korea, and Malaysia have signaled their alignment. Now, the rest of Asia must do the same as the geopolitical heat reaches unbearable levels.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
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