The Post-Tariff World
The end of duties is the start of something more dangerous
In April 2025, two education companies in the US filed a lawsuit against US President Donald Trump, challenging the legality of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
The IEEPA is the act that Trump invoked after reentering office to impose tariffs on the world, including against China, where the education companies made their product.
At the time, the lawsuit barely made headlines. But it became one of the two main lawsuits - alongside a separate suit represented by the Liberty Justice Center - that reached the US Supreme Court. And on February 20th, the Supreme Court ruled against almost 60% of Trump’s tariffs, saying they violated the IEEPA.
A handful of US small businesses challenged America’s biggest trade rewrite in modern history.
The Supreme Court’s verdict raises all kinds of questions. Will the White House ignore the highest judges in the land? Is America teetering on new political and economic uncertainty? And, perhaps most importantly, what will Trump do next?
In the backdrop, Trump has imposed a 15% flat tariff on the world. And is warning of more “powerful and obnoxious tariffs” on nations that “play games” with trade deals.
Global trade is once again in flux. The EU is warning that the latest 15% levy threatens the transatlantic deal inked last year. A trade deal between the US and India has been paused. China is calling on the US to cancel tariffs on Beijing after the Supreme Court’s ruling. For now, South Korea and Japan are staying quiet.
The ruling of the US Supreme Court is disrupting the global economy and geopolitics. And, instead of giving the White House pause, it is causing the opposite.
But there is another question that is going unanswered, one that I alluded to a few months ago when I warned that the world was approaching “peak tariffs.” What comes after tariffs?
For Trump, tariffs are now creating more problems than solutions. Remember the old adage from the Trump administration in 2020 as Covid-19 spread: The cure cannot be worse than the problem. This also applies to the US ideas for global trade.
If tariffs lose their bite, Trump faces two options. Walk away from his trade and geoeconomic ideas or drive them in a new way. Retreat is unlikely to be on the table. So, how will Trump drive his ideas? And, might the world prefer tariffs to what may come next?
One of the only ways to drive US economic goals across the globe may be to employ hard power. If tariffs are out or on the way out, then the following may be in:
51st state threats or moves by the US towards Canada
Washington taking steps to gain greater control of Greenland
Renewed threats to exit NATO or leave certain states in the cold
Strikes by the US on cartels in Mexico and other parts of South America
The targeted use of American military force (i.e., Iran)
And what would this look like in action?
Instead of tariffs on the EU, America could force Europe to buy $500 billion of US goods every year, or Washington leaves NATO.
The US begins targeted strikes on cartels in Mexico, indefinitely, unless Mexico introduces higher tariffs on imports from “sensitive economies” like China, Russia, etc.
The conclusion of tariffs could be the beginning of new American hard power.
And the overlapping of trade, security, economy, geopolitics, and security, in new and unprecedented ways. And, of course, the new collision course between the national politics within America and the geopolitics playing out across the globe.
The world has been fretting about tariffs for over a year. But what comes next could make tariffs look romantic and seductive. With “TACO” and “Sell America” buzzing, many believe that if Trump cannot have his way, he will back down. But, on trade, something the US President has been criticizing since the 1980s, capitulation is not an option.
The world should be quietly planning for what comes after tariffs. It may not be pause or silence. It could be bigger disruption, bigger disorder, and a stronger belief that America First is antithetical to the interests of many.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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