The New Showdown: National Politics vs. Geopolitics
An old battle restarts in a new way
As geopolitics takes the spotlight, it is easy to forget that national politics ultimately defines what countries can do. The snap elections in Japan over the weekend, for instance, have granted Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a supermajority. With the new win, expect Japan’s Iron Lady to take bold defense and economic steps, including around Taiwan, to combat the threat of China.
While sometimes the national politics align with the geopolitics, other times, they run counter to each other.
Currently, in several different regions, national politics is squeezing geopolitics.
Diego Garcia
Take the UK’s decision to give back control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a set of islands located in the Indian Ocean, east of Africa.
On face value, it has more to do with colonialism than geopolitics. Except, the largest island in Chagos is Diego Garcia, one of the most strategic bases for America, allowing it to project power in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This would force the US into a new agreement with Mauritius for continued access to Diego Garcia. The national politics of the UK, to make amends for history, have disrupted a key American base. Intially US President Donald Trump supported the handover, but more recently, he referred to it as an act of “GREAT STUPIDITY.”
UAE Chips
A similar showdown is underway in the US. During the Biden administration, the US halted advanced chip sales to the Middle East, afraid that China was accessing the tech. But under the second Trump administration, US-Arab ties are skyrocketing, and chip restrictions are becoming a thing of the past. Except, while the White House greenlights advanced chip exports to Arab allies to bolster relations, some American legislators are seeking a delay. Specifically, senator Elizbateth Warren, a staunch critic of Trump, has sought to kill chip exports to the UAE after an Emirati sheikh was found buying a 49% stake in a Trump family project, driving $187 million into Trump-related bank accounts. For Washington, tech geopolitics is clashing with domestic anger.
Trade vs. Sanctions
The US is not the only one suffering from the new political showdown.
In Europe, a similar battle is being waged, albeit in a different way. In January, the EU passed a new rule banning Russian gas imports (including LNG) by the end of 2027. How the EU did this is a tricky distinction between trade law and sanctions policy. To pass sanctions, the EU needs unanimous consent (all EU members must vote in favor). However, to pass a trade policy, the EU only needs 65% support.
This “difference” allowed Brussels to pass rules that others, like Hungary, would have objected to. Except, now, Hungary and Slovakia are suing the EU, in part, because of this difference. Some legal experts believe Budapest has a winning shot at the case. The EU’s own laws and politics are increasingly the biggest handicap to Brussels’ geopolitical goals.
Dangerous Divergence
Across the world, national politics and geopolitics are diverging. This is yet another flashpoint that is going under the radar. There are a number of reasons for this:
The local politics is focused on the rule of law, economic conduct, and overall domestic stability, while those driving geopolitics have their eye on alliances, economic security, and great power competition, areas that are often opposite to one another.
The geopolitics playing out today is forcing governments to abandon the “tried and tested.” The rules and order are gone. What the executive branch is doing is angering policymakers - at home and abroad.
The “leaders” are moving in directions that no longer align with the outlook and needs of the “followers.” Everybody is eyeing sovereignty and self-determination, fragmenting regions, blocs, and political unions that once seemed unshakeable.
The new showdown is actually not “new.” For decades, local politics has battled with global politics, from the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the ongoing war in Gaza. But now, whatever parameters existed are disappearing. A new chapter in this fight is beginning, pushing nations towards one of two paths.
Either national politics will triumph, reigning in the actions of nations and cutting through the geopolitical environment. Or, those in leadership positions are about to drive geopolitics into a higher gear as they ignore or supersede national politics, placing victory in the ongoing wars and rivalries above all else.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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