In January 2025, in the final weeks of the Biden administration, new chip rules were imposed, known as “AI diffusion” rules, which divided the world into three tiers—each of which had a different kind of access to US AI chips. Countries in Tier 1, close US allies, had unfettered access, those in Tier 2, more than 150 countries, had limits, and countries in Tier 3, the main US adversaries like China or Russia, were completely blocked.
At that time, it was the most disruptive chip-geopolitics move ever.
The US was redefining its tech trade with the world, making geopolitics the determining factor for who could access its most advanced technology. It had far-reaching consequences, including in Europe, where 10 nations were in Tier 1 while 17 nations were in Tier 2, splitting the continent along new chip lines.
Within months, the new Trump administration rescinded the AI diffusion rules. Tariffs became the new status quo and threats, like imposing 100% tariffs on imported chips, fueled new headaches. Very quickly, however, the situation has evolved into something else.
Chip-geopolitics, once mainly about export controls, is expanding into a far bigger battlefield that will redefine relationships, trade models, and the flow of technology around the world.
👁 GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT ON CHIPS & AI
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