NATO's Unraveling Begins in Rome
The Trump-Meloni fight signals something bigger
A massive geopolitical shift has occurred: after decades of unity, underpinned by the Western alliance, NATO is fracturing.
The story starts at the recent G7 in France, and a bunch of “hot mic” moments, like the EU Council President António Costa saying “we are friends again” while speaking to US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.
The friendship did not last long.
Right after the G7 ended, the US and Italian leaders collided, after Trump claimed Meloni “begged” him for a photo, and wants to be friends because she is lagging in the polls, all after rejecting America’s request to use Italian bases to strike Iran. Meloni hit back, rejecting the claim, questioning the rationale of Trump’s accusation, and defending Italy’s position on the Iran war.
That should have been the end of it.
Except, then unexpectedly, the head of NATO, Mark Rutte, speaking on US television said that Italy gave “massive support” to the US during the Iran conflict, allowing 500 US planes to take off from Italian bases. Rutte only had good intentions, attempting tell Washington that Rome was its friend and defuse the Trump-Meloni spat.
But the opposite occurred. Italy has rejected Rutte’s claim. Rutte’s comment has created an unfortunate optic: the head of NATO is (almost) picking the US over Europe and Italy.
In the backdrop, French President Emmanuel Macron’s remark in April continues to ring: the EU joint-defense clause is stronger than Article 5 in NATO, signaling that European nations will defend each other far more effectively than with the inclusion of the US (and Canada).
What is happening between the US, Italy, and NATO is not surface level. It is taking place on the eve of the upcoming NATO summit in Turkey, one that is sure to see European nations pledge more spending to meet America’s (almost constant) security demands. However, in parallel, NATO itself is fracturing as Western nations view one another through a new lens. It is the latest signal that the West, as a bloc, is entering a new phase of division and separation.
NATO is on the same trajectory as the UN, WTO, and other global groups that today stand on the sidelines of global affairs as countries huddle in more exclusive settings (i.e., Board of Peace > UN). Within a short time, NATO may simply be a banner that the West stands under. However in reality, by the end of the decade, Europe could have a sovereign security architecture and America could roll back its umbrella from the continent, or only defend ideologically-aligned states.
The pulse of the “old NATO” is slowing. A new, fractured NATO is taking life.
Yes, China and Russia will be salivating.
However, this is not just a story about defense and security. It is about the global economic architecture too. The more the US and Europe collide and disconnect on defense, the more they will part ways in other theatres too, from technology to capital.
The more the West fractures, the more the global economy will be governed by competing ideas, corridors, and rules. Nothing is occurring in isolation. A breakdown in Western security will have a knock-on effect for trade and capital.
In today’s world, the winds of geopolitics are quickly turning friend to foe and foe to friend. The list of “triggers” for geopolitical events is quickly expanding.
A post on social media, a remark by the head of NATO, and a far more unilateral America, are all having the same effect: a breakdown in the established order and systems that spin the world.
And, in particular, what is taking place between the US and Italy is likely to reinforce the spreading rationale in Paris, Berlin, Rome, and London, that dependency on the US is now a clear and present danger. That for Europe, America is entering a strange new place between ally and adversary, companion and competitor.
Have questions or ideas? Let’s talk: abishur at mrgeopolitics dot com
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