National Security? Economic Security? Think "Geopolitical Security."
The new lens to view the world through
A huge revelation occurred a few days ago: Chinese AI models now account for 46% of US enterprise token usage.
In plain speak, that means that almost 50% of AI queries from American firms are being inputted into Chinese AI systems, not American AI. Put differently: Chinese AI is outcompeting American AI in America.
Forget for a moment the obvious data and spying fears as US companies use Chinese AI in their internal operations. There is also a massive contradiction here. While Washington builds “tech walls” against China, and bangs the drum of America First, some US companies are putting Chinese AI first. Affordability is once again China’s edge, mimicking the Chinese success from manufacturing to EVs.
The revelation is so significant that US lawmakers are debating how to stop Chinese AI from spreading so rapidly through the economy (cue a new TikTok-approach as the US forces Chinese AI firms to hand over control of their local operations). It is also unlikely to be a coincidence that as American firms pick Chinese AI for cost, Meta’s new paid AI model has “ultra-low pricing.”
For decades, the lens to look at a development, like the spread of Chinese AI in the West, was national security. More recently, it has been economic security. Both occupy a different space. But both sit in the same backdrop and have a common thread: a new, disruptive geopolitical climate. The single biggest catalyst today for nations to achieve national security or economic security is geopolitics. Therefore, whether or not governments realize it, they are pursuing “geopolitical security.”
This is security from the shocks and risks that geopolitics is creating today across the economic, political, technological, and financial domains. Geopolitical security is now the umbrella that national security, economic security, and sovereignty sit under.
Chinese AI diffusing through the US is one example of geopolitical security. Another example is Canada’s deal with Germany for 12 submarines, the largest such deal in Canadian history. Part of this is about Canadian control over the Arctic. However, another part is Canada’s pursuit of more strategic autonomy from America (geopolitical security). The Canadian government explicitly ruled out nuclear-powered submarines in its procurement deal, focusing instead on diesel-powered. Here is where it gets interesting. The US does not produce or operate diesel-powered submarines. This meant no US firms even bid on the Canadian contract. A savvy play by Ottawa to reduce dependence on America without making it explicit? Likely. And, by selecting Germany, Canada is integrating deeper with Europe, creating a new common front to “manage” a more unpredictable world. This is geopolitical security, not just national security or economic security.
Geopolitical security is not an intellectual discussion. It is the new North Star of national thinking, even if few governments term it this way (for now). And, geopolitical security could result in profound changes.
As Washington wakes up to Chinese AI dominating the homeland, the White House will have to go beyond bans or forced handovers, fundamentally reshaping how America’s AI sector functions. The first step will be to significantly lower costs. Might the US introduce price ceilings for its AI companies? The moment costs drop, and demand surges, even more compute power (infrastructure) will be needed. More compute power will result in greater CAPEX, mainly by Washington, drawing the US government deeper into the AI race, and triggering similar moves from Beijing to Paris to Dubai. At the core of it all would be America’s pursuit of geopolitical security.
Whether boardrooms or government capitals, the single biggest headache today is what is happening across the globe. Therefore, the single biggest push today is to shield against it. Everybody is navigating the new jungle of world affairs. Everybody is seeking protection, insulation, or outright domination. In this never-ending tug-of-war between who rules and who follows, geopolitical security is the ultimate state everybody is rushing towards.
Have questions or ideas? Let’s talk: abishur at mrgeopolitics dot com
Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.