If Iran Loses The War, How Does It End The War?
The cards Tehran may play as defeat looms
With every passing day, the war in Iran is worsening. Now, a drone strike in Azerbaijan threatens to draw in Central Asia, already under siege from the Ukraine-Russia drone war hitting oil export terminals and tankers in the Black Sea.
Not even one week into the fighting, with weeks more to go, all kinds of unknowns surround the latest Middle Eastern war.
The biggest, though, is not being asked. Should Iran’s leadership feel they are losing the war, how will they end the war on their terms?
Retreat and surrender are not on the table. The Iranian regime will fight till the end. If they calculate defeat, the end result will not be capitulation to US and Israeli forces. It could be activating seismic options that inflict the most damage on the region and US interests.
There are several directions this could take:
Striking nuclear, electricity, and desalination facilities across the region, particularly in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, to destabilize societies and cause long-term fallout (i.e., a new Fukushima or Chernobyl, triggering a water crisis). The desalination threat is particularly dangerous. In the UAE, for instance, 42% of drinking water comes from desalination plants. In Israel, it is around 86%.
Attacking apartment complexes or residential neighborhoods housing the families of US/Israeli soldiers, putting tens of thousands of civilian lives at risk
Mass cyber attacks that cripple US critical infrastructure, particularly water processing plants, which have been breached by Iranian hackers in the past
Going after “diamond projects” like Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megacity that cause economic bleeding or striking internet cables across the region that sever connectivity
Expansion of Strait of Hormuz blockade to the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, creating a “red zone” that stretches from the southern tip of Iraq to the Arabian Sea
Activation of sleeper cells across the Western world, driven by groups like Hezbollah, threatening a new phase of terrorism and instability from Europe to the US
There will not be an “announcement” that Iran is losing the war. Instead, the signals of defeat will be in the destabilizing actions Tehran takes over the coming weeks. The more chaotic and unhinged Iran becomes, the closer a defeat may be nearing.
Behind these moves, the Iranian regime could take other steps that echo into the future, such as smuggling advanced weaponry or biological and nuclear weapons development to various groups across the globe, handing them keys to chaos.
There are also the "leaks” that Iran has constantly teased in the past. If Iranian hacking collectives actually have compromising information on Western leaders, a dead man’s switch could be activated if the fighting crosses a certain threshold (i.e., the next Supreme Leader is also killed).
And, connected to all this, Iran's entire ground army is sitting idle, watching their nation come under fire. From the Basij, a state-backed militia with anywhere from 200,000 to millions of members, to the IRGC, with around 190,000 soldiers, the more desperate Iran becomes, the higher chance of deadly maneuvers, like an attempted ground invasion of neighboring states - including Arab nations across the Persian Gulf. Yes, an attempt by Iran to invade other nations by land could be on the table.
So far, most have questioned when the war will end. But, this is the wrong way to approach the conflict. It is not so much whether Iran will lose the war (high probability), but what Iran does as US and Israeli forces gain more and more control of the nation. The regime still has at least a dozen ways to sow chaos. They will not go silently into the night. They may attempt to end the war on their terms.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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