The Week Ahead in Geopolitics
Where economies, markets, and nations go next
Stability has become an illusion. Every week now carries new disruptions that ripple across systems. Here are the three that could define what happens next—plus a wild card at the end.
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1. Reliance Weaponization*
What China has done with its expanded rare earth measures is not a policy change or supply chain weaponization. It is what I call “reliance weaponization.” Beijing is now leveraging the global economic exposure to China on a scale few imagined. China has one week to change gears, from rare earth measures to crackdowns on US companies, like Chinese customs inspecting ports for Nvidia chips, before the APEC Summit in South Korea.
By the end of the week…
The US and China will either have lowered the temperature or will be threatening even greater action toward one another, creating a “global fog” that few, if any, can see through.
2. Economic Whiplash
The Financial Stability Board (FSB), which monitors the global financial system, has issued a major warning that G20 economies are at risk of a financial crash, blaming the geopolitical (and economic) situation. The global wars and rivalries have reached a dangerous point, either causing bleeding or market inadequacies (like bubbles). The next major flare-up—like the US and China building “tariff walls”— might be what pushes markets and economies off the edge. Governments have to quickly build insulation between themselves and the world stage.
By the end of the week…
Governments may propose or introduce new strategies to manage the geopolitical fallout. This could range from fiscal changes to new debt issuance as everybody races against time.
3. Ceasefire Fragility
The new Gaza ceasefire, lauded by much of the world in Egypt, is more fragile than many realize. There are already warnings of new tension on the horizon, as Israel says one of the bodies returned was not a hostage, and aid into Gaza has been restricted. A ceasefire that could snap within days—sending shockwaves back through the Red Sea and trade lanes surrounding the Middle East. The fighting that paralyzed global shipping has paused, causing many to reexamine the old maritime lanes leading to the Suez Canal. These lanes may be drawn back into conflict if Israel and Hamas trade new barbs.
By the end of the week…
Signs of the ceasefire breaking could be too big to ignore, forcing many countries and companies to maintain their existing positions towards the Middle East and key parts of global trade.
Wild Card: NATO-Russia
The situation between NATO and Russia is worsening as the US prepares to send Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. They could be used to strike major Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, although Ukraine has promised to only strike Russian military targets. If the US gives the green light for Tomahawk delivery, it will remove the remaining guardrails from the Ukraine-Russia war and generate new global shockwaves. In tandem with this, there is the rising possibility that NATO could shoot down Russian fighter jets that violate their airspace.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
Deeper Geopolitical Foresight from Abishur:
Private Executive Briefings: Closed-door, tailored sessions with Abishur Prakash
Quarterly Geopolitical Foresight: 10 Geopolitical Shocks Threatening Q4 2025
Monthly Geopolitical Foresight: Geopolitical Capitalism | October 2025
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*Resource weaponization is a concept/expression of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc
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