Geopoliticalmaxxing
Zero-sum thinking is becoming the status quo
Last week, Russia held its annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). One session, mapping out the biggest threats to Russia till 2050 (mid-century), discussed fifteen different scenarios divided between geopolitics, demographics, technology, and more.
In the good basket of scenarios: Russia annexes Kyiv, the EU breaks apart, and Russian ideology prevails against the West. In the bad basket, Russia loses the war in Ukraine, and Ukraine joins NATO.
In the middle basket, Moscow uses nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe related to the ongoing war. Yes, the probability of a nuclear exchange is rising.
Regardless of the basket, and whether or not they consciously realize it, Russia’s intellectual brass views the future through a single lens: The Great Fracturing.
In the backdrop of that, zero-sum thinking is returning to geopolitics. There is a different phrase for this, what I call “Geopoliticalmaxxing,” where nations are taking the most extreme approach to how they conduct themselves and think about the future.
Russia is not alone in Geopoliticalmaxxing.
The US threats, like taking control of Greenland or the Panama Canal, the blockade around Cuba, the move against Maduro in Venezuela, and the ongoing war in Iran, all point to American hard power being used in the most extreme ways. The Iranian weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz and the Yuan-denominated toll-booth, while no longer surprising, is exactly the “nuclear scenario” many envisioned if the US and Iran went to war: Tehran closes the critical chokepoint. This has happened; Iran has played its most radical card.
The most extreme ideas are being tabled or played.
The era of Geopoliticalmaxxing will not follow Lookxmaxxing or other types of “maxxing” that are taking over the mainstream. Those are likely to fizzle out. However, Geopoliticalmaxxing is likely to snowball.
This changes the calculations for the world.
Most investors and policymakers are still viewing geopolitics through the lens of “incremental changes.” In today’s world, incremental means a tariff here, a tech sovereignty push there, a new bloc here. But, Geopoliticalmaxxing points to rapid escalation. It points to nations going for the jugular right away or planning for their enemies to do so, pushing them to take new action from trade to economy to AI.
What sets Geopoliticalmaxxing apart from traditional geopolitics is that nations are no longer holding their highest cards in reserve. They are leading with them. The era of "escalation ladders" is collapsing. A new game of prey or predator has begun.
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
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