Gaza War Pauses, The Next Shock Phase Begins
The end of fighting sets off a scramble for control and contracts
The fragile ceasefire in the Gaza Strip remains intact—even as Israel warns that one of the bodies returned was not a hostage, and deliveries of aid trucks into Gaza remain restricted.
While some breathe a sigh of relief that the fighting has stopped, and calm can return to the Middle East, in reality, a new phase of geopolitics has begun. The spotlight now turns fully to Iran, which has been preparing for a second war with Israel after 12 days of fighting in June—fighting that almost resulted in the Strait of Hormuz being closed, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes every day.
Next War
Iran has been quietly rebuilding its air defenses while also ending cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog after the EU voted to reimpose sanctions on Tehran. There is little to no external oversight of the Iranian nuclear program, raising the probability of military action in the near future.
If Israel and Iran return to trading blows, it could ricochet across the region, including trade lanes, like the Red Sea, which shipping companies are preparing to return to. Equally important, Hamas, an Iranian proxy, might relaunch attacks on Israel if fighting resumes with Iran, sidelining the ceasefire. If Gaza descends back into chaos, Arab economies may turn away from Israel for good.
Rebuilding Competition
Equally significant is the rebuild effort in Gaza, estimated to cost $70 billion.
This could place geopolitics at the center of global trade and business. Consider that NEOM, the Saudi megacity, is using 20% of the world’s steel. This mind-boggling statistic reflects the scale of Arab infrastructure projects.
The Gaza reconstruction could demand equally huge amounts of resources and goods, from concrete to new telecommunications to transportation. Who will supply this infrastructure? For now, the US and Europe are preparing to support the $70 billion rebuild. But nothing is stopping China or Russia from stepping into the picture. A race could begin between competing powers to win reconstruction contracts across the globe. And this could result in unexpected deals, like in Ukraine, where the nation’s telecom giant has bought a Chinese kit to rebuild networks at a moment when China is backing Moscow in the war.
New Phase
Gaza could see a new kind of geopolitics play out, between countries that want their companies to win contracts, and also, over doling out aid in the form of loans that will eventually need to be paid back.
As US President Donald Trump warns Hamas to disarm, the future of the war in Gaza is up in the air. But this is no longer just about the chaos in the area, but where this could lead. Suddenly, everybody is in the same position. Few know what will happen next, but it is becoming clear, even if the Gaza war is truly over, the geopolitics has only just begun.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
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