From Kashmir to Chaos: The Global Shockwaves of an India-Pakistan Conflict
After Europe and the Middle East, war surrounds Asia
“There is no such thing as a regional war. Every war is now global, and is cracking and bruising the global systems and wiring.”
As India and Pakistan stare at each other, waiting to see what the other does, the conditions are lining up for a serious conflict between the two bitter rivals. India is preparing to strike Pakistan over the Pahalgam terrorist attack, which will almost certainly be met with retaliation, putting New Delhi and Islamabad at the start of a major war.
A fight between the two South Asian powers comes with serious shockwaves. Even the punches before the main showdown, like India cutting Pakistan’s access to water from the Indus are destabilizing.
From my thread on X:
However, all of this pales in comparison to what is looming if India and Pakistan begin to clash.
The “global environment” today is completely different to the past. The last time India and Pakistan “collided” was in 2019, resulting in India’s so-called as “surgical strikes.”
But today, the world has become desensitized to war.
The biggest consequence of the wars in Europe and the Middle East is that countries are no longer afraid to throw a punch. They are ready to strike and get bloody, giving allies and institutions the cold shoulder. War has become acceptable. Fresh India-Pakistan fighting would take place in this backdrop, resulting in war being amplified, not resolved.
There are several paths forward for India. Two in particular require attention.
First, India can conduct broader surgical strikes deep within Pakistan, targeting key terrorist compounds, copying a page from Israel, who last October used over 100 warplanes to engage Iranian nuclear facilities and air defense systems, including all the way in Parchin, located over 2,000 kilometers from Israel’s borders. Second, India launches a major naval, ground, and air offensive against Pakistan, in a bid to drive back terrorists and militants located near the Line of Control (LoC), or even redraw the LoC, along with taking out certain sites (state-backed/run) that support the terrorist groups New Delhi is targeting.
BIG Shockwaves
Regardless, the moment India takes any step, Pakistan will respond in kind. At that point, all bets are off, as to whether a conflict begins in South Asia with no real guardrails.
There are several big shockwaves of an India-Pakistan war.
First, war arrives in Asia.
For three years, since the Ukraine conflict broke out, Asia has been insulated from war. Somehow, Asian states kept their tensions from boiling over, in particular, China and the Philippines and North Korea and South Korea. But a fight between India and Pakistan would reshape the Asian landscape, as the rest of the region adapts to a new climate, much like Europe and the Middle East have. What this means, from economy to diplomacy, will depend on the country. But, Asia will no longer be viewed as shelter from the other conflicts, and instead, will be viewed as the birthplace of brand new geopolitical clashes.
Second, China faces big geopolitical headache.
China is bogged down by geopolitics, in particular the US-China economic war. This is forcing Beijing to rethink everything, in particular China’s relationship with other crucial states, like India. A war between India and Pakistan will require Beijing to play a tricky balancing act, as China may not want to collide with India at this moment. However, China must also protect its investments. Between 2005 and 2024, Beijing invested almost $70 billion in Pakistan. If a conflict breaks out, threatening Pakistan’s economic and social stability, China may have no choice but to intervene (on some level). However, China does not want to be dragged down by geopolitics that is not pivotal to its interests, leading to big question marks as to how far China will go to protect Pakistan or push back against India.
Third, foundation of a new US-India alliance.
Recently, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said that a US-India trade deal could be one of the first to be struck under the new Trump administration. This is in part to India moving the trade agreement along at rapid speed to shield itself from Trump’s tariffs and trade moves. However, while for the US, India’s response to tariffs was the big “defining factor” in how far the two nations could go, for India, it is how the US responds to India’s next moves on Pakistan. This puts the ball in the US court. Much of the US rhetoric over the decades, of the US-India relationship being the defining relationship of the 21st century, will now be tested. Will America stand by India in a war with Pakistan? If so, it could set the stage, not just for a US-India trade deal but for a US-India alliance.
Fourth, Eurasian neutrality will be tested.
India is not the same country it was even a decade ago. With the spotlight on China, India has quickly emerged as a global economic power, signaled by various choices New Delhi has made, in particular after the Ukraine war broke out. This means that an India-Pakistan war will force many Asian states to pick sides. India may seek to cut Pakistan off, and could turn to European, Asian, and Middle Eastern states to do so. Some will not be swayed like China and Turkey. But others may feel their relationship with Pakistan is not worth angering India, and clear geopolitical sides could be picked. Once again, geopolitics could result in the old design of the world disappearing, full of integration and the removal of barriers, and a “vertical design” rising full of obstacles, walls and fault lines.
Fifth, another Asian war becomes likely.
If a war starts in South Asia, it raises the prospect of wars starting elsewhere in Asia. As resources and attention shift to the sub-continent, others in the Indo-Pacific might feel it is a perfect time to strike. Whether it is China-Taiwan or North Korea-South Korea, an India-Pakistan war could start a domino effect. This puts a new kind of pressure and responsibility on the rest of the world, and particularly Asian states. Responding to what happens between New Delhi and Islamabad is not just about those two nations but also about limiting the outbreak of another war. This brings China, Russia, the US, Japan, and to a lesser degree, the United Nations, deep into a new India-Pakistan war. The actions of those nations could decide what happens next in Asia.
Conclusion
Once again, the world is on the brink of war. As I wrote in an opinion piece for Nikkei Asia, the next war could push the world into an uncontrollable descent. Equally important: war is no longer generational, it is becoming a common occurrence, a permanent staple of the world.
What happens next between India and Pakistan is not just a story of old bitter rivals locking horns (again). It is a window into how major powers are thinking if and when a “shock” takes place (like a terrorist attack). Patience is gone; diplomacy is dying; and appeasement is not an option.
There is no such thing as a regional war. Every war is now global, and is cracking and bruising the global systems and wiring. In such a climate, what India and Pakistan do next requires a different kind of attention and calculation. If the two nuclear-armed powers strike, it could set the stage for much more to take place, in Asia, and across the world.
-ABISHUR/MR. GEOPOLITICS
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