Forget AI Slop. "Geopolitical Slop" Is The New Crisis.
Welcome to the era of intellectual laziness
Over the past few months, particularly since the Iran war started in February, a new crisis has begun (and flown under the radar).
The number of people analyzing geopolitics now exponentially outweighs the number of geopolitical experts.
Think about that for a moment. More people are dissecting global events than ever before, yet there is also more geopolitical noise than ever before, including from so-called “experts” who have been sitting at the table for decades.
What do we call this? In a world of AI slop, I propose “geopolitical slop.” Here are a few examples of geopolitical slop that I have picked up in recent times (no names for obvious reasons):
A sudden spike in headlines saying that China is about to cut rare earth exports to the US, with no real data or justification given. Just “putting it out there,” so to speak.
So-called “experts” convinced that America has lost the competition for the 21st century, using the Iran war and the dealmaking in the Global South as the main reasoning.
Constant moving of the goalposts around when and how the Ukraine war will end, by folks, including former military, who have been repeatedly proven wrong since the conflict began in 2022.
With every passing day, it is becoming clear. In the geopolitical world, few, if any, are breaking new ground.
It is shallow analysis, conspiratorial overtones, outright nonsense, recycling someone else’s ideas, or simply being wrong nine times and right once, all packaged as deep insight or even intelligence. This is not limited to the random YouTuber uploading clickbait videos. This also applies to those whose ideas once provided clarity.
Put simply, there is a huge shortage of actual insight into the new jungle of geopolitics and the dynamics driving it. Titles and brand power continue to overshadow a clear lack of understanding of the enormous shifts occurring in the world today.
The geopolitical slop represents a multi-front crisis.
In the West, particularly, the geopolitical slop is pushing societies away from pragmatic thinking and toward beliefs about the world that have zero basis. Critical thinking is disappearing. Lazy ideas, like “political risk” or “supercycles,” are being reinforced, or conspiratorial ideas, like that China and Russia will take over the globe, are spreading like fire.
For organizations, finding the next generation of reliable and credible experts is becoming harder and harder. How does somebody judge who is an actual expert versus who is acting like one? Education or experience no longer separates experts and amateurs, because most geopolitical education and experience today is for a world that no longer exists. Most are trying to map their experience during the Cold War or the era of hyper-globalization to the environment that exists today (and that does not work very well).
Those in reactive mode, like investors, have to be even more cautious as geopolitical slop spreads. This is not about verifying deepfakes or Russian bots spreading lies. It is about choosing which signals to follow or ignore. If 20 geopolitical experts are saying China is about to ban American tech, and two experts are saying the opposite, who do investors follow (and why)?
AI slop is easy to see. All of us have developed an internal radar that goes off when we see paragraphs written a certain way or an image that looks a bit strange. We can see the fingerprints of AI. And, when we do, we are instantly turned off. Because few truly value what AI puts out versus what humans put out.
Yet, with geopolitical slop, it is a different story, with a twist of irony.
Geopolitical slop is hard to spot. It is not just about unknown names putting out analysis. It is also about established names plateauing in their ability to guide. Of course, there are some tell-tale signs. Concepts like “New Cold War,” “Axis of Evil,” or black-and-white frameworks all signal a deep lack of understanding about the current global status quo.
And, while AI slop turns us away from AI, geopolitical slop turns us away from humans, and perhaps, towards AI. When human intelligence is in doubt, people may trust AI more.
In tandem, there may be no choice.
Creating a video saying “China will invade Taiwan tomorrow” gets a million views, while a video laying out the state of China-Taiwan relations, and why it could take five years for war, might get 50 views.
As geopolitics turns the world upside down, everybody is rushing to figure out what is happening and what to do. But in this rush (or race), caution is more necessary than ever before. Geopolitical slop is a real and pressing crisis. Those who ignore it risk getting lost in the fog. Those who identify it risk paralysis, unsure of what direction to move in. For now, there is no real solution to geopolitical slop.
The only prescription is knowing that geopolitical slop exists. And the worse the world stage gets, the worse geopolitical slop will become
-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”
Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.