Europe's New Geopolitical Squeeze
Picking sovereignty also means picking sides
Over the past several days, multiple geopolitical storms have appeared over Europe.
First, the EU announced a $140 million fine against X (Twitter), enraging the US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and threatening a new fight across the Atlantic.
Second, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, speaking to media, has revealed that he threatened Beijing with tariffs during his state visit to the country if the Chinese trade surplus was not addressed. While China’s trade surplus with Europe hovers at $276 billion, its surplus with the world has topped $1 trillion for the first time. And, this new high has been reached as exports to the US drop by a third, while trade with Europe, Southeast Asia, and Australia rise. Put differently, America’s tariffs have not made China less competitive, they have just redirected the flow of Chinese goods, including to close US allies. Put that differently, America’s tariffs have caused China to dump goods in Europe, which is now angering European governments.
Third, and perhaps most significant, the US has unveiled its new National Security Strategy. If implemented, it would signal a historic shift in how America conducts itself across the world, particularly in allied states. Several times Europe is mentioned, including warning of “civilizational erasure” and America’s duty to help Europe get back on the “right path.”
Fourth, in the background of all this, US-brokered talks between Ukraine and Russia to end the war in Europe have failed. The US and Europe are now on truly divergent paths when it comes to Ukraine, as European states huddle around Kyiv, and America debates walking away from the conflict entirely.
Geopolitical Squeeze
All of these may appear as separate storms. But they could quickly converge. They place Europe in the middle of a geopolitical sandwich or a geopolitical quagmire (or both).
Europe is now fighting multiple geopolitical fronts at the same time.
At one moment, Europe is locking horns with America, from security to culture.
At another moment, Europe is threatening collision with China over industrial erosion.
Unlike in the past, when it was the US raising the heat, now Europe is taking its own actions. It is Europe’s choice to fine X. It is Europe’s choice to threaten tariffs on China. It is Europe’s choice to accept or reject America’s new national security blueprint.
The big question in front of Europe is how much pressure it can deal with.
The war in Ukraine is raging as Europe threatens to shoot down Russian warplanes, and Russian President Vladimir Putin warns that if Europe wants war, Russia is ready. The old European energy security has not yet returned, making the ground more fragile. Then add to this, an historic fight with America, a new trade war with China, and a burgeoning German economic crisis, which one industry association has warned is the worst crisis since WWII.
Unless Europe has an ace up its sleeve, it may soon be pushed to a breaking point, where it has to recalibrate its positions on a range of issues.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Go deeper here, and what Europe faces is no longer a simple equation. Before, it was about lowering tariffs on US autos or buying American energy on one side, or opening the European market to China and reducing industrial barriers on the other side.
But now, what America is calling for is far more significant.
The US wants to redesign (or revert) Europe’s social design and economic policies. At a moment when America First implies that the US goes alone, here something quite different is occurring. The US is seeking to relink the West through a shared outlook and identity, as existed a short time ago. The US wants to play a new role in Europe. Europe however, may see this as interference and meddling.
Cultural Reinvention
The squeeze on Europe is very different than before. In a matter of months, tariffs have given way to cultural reinvention, a critical eye on immigration, and America’s belief that it must defend Western civilization in a new way. And if Europe does not play, the other option becomes dangerous. If instead of aligning with America’s new demands, Europe turns to China, it will put Brussels in the strangest court. Europe will be seeking to defend its economic sovereignty and cultural outlook by aligning with a country that is on a completely different page.
Geopolitical calculations were never simple. But, at least the variables were clear.
Now, however, as the case with Europe shows, there is more noise and uncertainty than ever before. 2+2 still equals 4. But, with the world in flux, “4” means something very different today.
-ABISHUR PRAKASH AKA. MR. GEOPOLITICS
Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.
The new US strategy to establish national and economic security, in part by protecting a certain Western identity, might coincide with fears in Europe that America is about to “meddle” in the continent. Such fears, compounded on the back of US-EU tech friction, could lead to a bigger push by Brussels to reclaim sovereignty, from defense to technology, and restrict America’s footprint in the continent.
Two takeaways are becoming clear.
First, Europe is becoming sandwiched between geopolitics. A
Second, the era of the collective West is coming to an end. Short of a war that draws in Western governments to fight a mutual enemy, the West that existed during and after the great wars of the 20th century is gone. That bloc is permanently fractured. Tensions over technology threaten to derail the US-EU trade deal. The policies that follow the new US National Security Strategy, such as moving soldiers from Europe, could create a new sovereignty crisis across European capitals, and take ideas like ReArm Europe, the 800 billion euro defense plan, to a new level.
reorient Washington around the Americas (Western Hemisphere), and themes like economic security, burden sharing, and the control of vital transportation links. Within this document are references to Europe,
First, EU goes after X…
Then, US goes after EU… (national security strategy)
Then, Macron goes after China…
In the background of all this, Ukraine-Russia talks have broken down.