🇺🇦🇷🇺 The New Status Quo If Ukraine and Russia Stop Fighting

And what happens if no deal is reached

Mar 17, 2025

∙ Paid

For the first time in more than three years, a ceasefire proposal has been put together by the US and Ukraine. The ball is now in Russia’s court, as representatives from the White House land in Moscow for talks. The messages coming out of the Kremlin are mixed. Russian president Vladimir Putin said he agrees with a ceasefire “in principle” but senior officials/aides in Putin’s circle are saying that the US-Ukrainian proposal lacks the conditions/concessions that Russia needs.

It is increasingly likely that Russia will reject the ceasefire. - without officially rejecting it. There are several reasons why, which I outlined below (click the image to see my X post), including Russia retaking Kursk, previously held by Ukraine, and part of Kyiv’s negotiating strategy to trade territories. The current state of the war increasingly favors the Russian side, allowing Moscow to play hardball and demand greater concessions, from both Kyiv and Washington, well beyond what is currently being proposed or ideated behind closed doors.