🖇️👥 Asia Rewired: Geopolitical Shake-Up Spreads Across the Region
From Delhi to Beijing—tectonic moves behind the headlines
“China is trying to disrupt the supply chains that America’s defense industry relies on.”
When Donald Trump took office in January, most thought it would be Europe or the Middle East that faced the biggest disruption. After all, that is where wars are blazing, representing the big-ticket items Trump pledged to solve.
But, then unexpected events took place.
Calls of Canada becoming the 51st state, threats to take over the Panama Canal, and ideas of annexing Greenland, injected Trump’s disruption into new geographies and changed the global outlook of America.
To those paying close attention, it became clear that America First meant something very different in Trump 2.0.
(“Asia Rewired” is a concept of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc)
However, out of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, and the new US-China economic war, Asia has entered a state of flux, more so than any other region in the world. Across the board, Asian states are all rethinking their place and position.
Trump’s geopolitics are changing Asia more than any other part of the world.
An “informal bloc” between China, Japan, and South Korea, a rush by India to sign a free trade deal with the US, and a push by Indonesia to recalibrate trade, are just a few small examples of the dramatic changes taking place in Asia, all of which have a single catalyst: America’s disruptive behavior.
All of these changes are rewiring Asia from the ground up.
A new status quo is forming for a region that is quickly becoming the global center of gravity, full of different alliances, relationships, and in the end, unfamiliar geopolitical outlooks. While there are dozens of different shifts, three in particular stand out and require special attention.
Neutrality Is Dead
As I have warned several times, neutrality is ending. Governments and businesses are being forced to pick sides. For several years, Asia has risen on the back of integration and a “barrierless world” (old globalization). This model no longer works. The new “vertical globalization” that has begun, full of walls and barriers, only amplified by Trump’s decisions, is converting countries from “friends of everybody” to “friends of some.”
The clearest sign is with Indonesia, which has warned it will boost US imports and cut trade with other nations. This casual yet shocking statement/move is exactly what Trump wants to replicate, and places Jakarta squarely in Washington’s camp, and against US adversaries.
Add to this, as neutrality ends, so do ideas of supply chain diversification. Putting critical supply chains in Vietnam or India no longer satisfies the US. The only option is relocation back to America.
This means in Asia, neutrality is ending on two levels. First, Asian states themselves are picking geopolitical corners. Second, the forces that have integrated Asia, like Western supply chain diversification, are on a path of disappearing, separating Asian nations in new ways.
All Eyes on India
When Trump entered the White House in January, it was a 50/50 split on whether US-India relations would be elevated or sidelined. Now, out of Liberation Day, India is beating every other economy in Asia to sign a trade deal with the US - even ahead of close US allies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia. Add to this, US vice-president JD Vance’s visit to India speaks volumes as to how both Washington and New Delhi are working behind the scenes to take US-India relations to brand new heights, potentially leaning towards an alliance.
All eyes are now on India’s forward movement towards the US. If India succeeds in signing a trade deal with the US, it could position India as the most significant nation in Asia for the US for the remainder of Trump’s tenure.
However, there is another reason why the spotlight is also on India: New Delhi is attempting a tricky balancing act with China.
Since Trump took office, India has begun a reopening of sorts with China, like looking at pulling back limits on Chinese investment in the country. Meanwhile, Beijing has sent “feelers” to explore ways to reduce the $100 billion trade deficit India has with China. But, now, India has imposed a 12% tariff on certain steel imports aimed mainly at China, reflecting the balancing act and “push and pull” dynamic at play between the two Asian powers.
While neutrality dies, India is attempting to keep its two most important economic doors open, hedging its bets on both sides. And, for the US and China, a new sub-competition is beginning to court India like never before, one that will span all of Asia (including the Middle East).
China’s Threats
When the US-China economic war began, and the US and Beijing raised tariffs on each other in a tit-for-tat fashion, China mainly warned America against further action. But, over the past few days, Beijing has warned the world. The Chinese have made it clear that any nation that signs economic deals with America that jeopardize China’s interests will face retaliation and punishment.
This in itself is quite provocative. China is putting the global economy on notice, especially as it watches the direction of countries like India, Indonesia, Australia, and others. China will not allow economies, in particular Asian economies, to rekindle with Washington while divorcing Beijing.
Now, China has gone beyond this, a sign that the Chinese government is done with optics and lip service.
Building on an informal setup between China, Japan, and South Korea, where Chinese state media said the three nations would respond to Trump’s tariffs as “one,” Korean media is now reporting a shocking move. China is pushing Korean companies to halt exports to US defense companies that use Chinese rare earths. Almost 50% of Korea’s rare earth imports come from China. In certain categories, like terbium, used in displays, Korea’s reliance on China rises to 80%. This means that a majority of Korean high-tech sectors employ Chinese rare earths.
Of course, Seoul is not likely to listen. But that is not the point. China feels that its relationship with South Korea has improved so much that it can make such a request. This should jolt Washington, as the “red flags shadow” extends deep into the US orbit.
It means that China’s retaliation to the US is going beyond the expected parameters. China is starting to weaponize its commodity exports in a way that jeopardizes US national security through other nations. China is trying to disrupt the supply chains that America’s defense industry relies on.
This is how Trump and his team will interpret this, exacerbating the US-China economic war and drawing in dimensions few expected would emerge so quickly.
Conclusion
Like much of the world, Asia is being drawn into a geopolitical black hole.
But, unlike other regions, where the future is largely grey and unknown, Asia is in a different boat. Already, the new fault lines of Asia are appearing, and the new realities and pressures on capitals are revealing themselves.
The above is only a very, very small look at “Asia Rewired”. But, it is enough to give most pause. Major structural changes are accelerating that will redefine the most critical aspects of the region like trade and connectivity.
However, anybody hoping for clarity should think again.
What is taking place in Asia is the result of just a few months of global disruption. Now, not only is this disruption accelerating, but its reach is expanding. If what took place over the last months can push Asia into rough waters, then what is about to begin will further reshape Asia from the inside out and outside in.
Like most of the world, betting on Asia now means betting on uncertainty. However, unlike other parts of the world, nobody can walk away or rethink Asia. And this means, as Asia enters a new chapter, everybody is along for the ride.
Now, what Asia does, or does not do, the world will feel.
-ABISHUR/MR. GEOPOLITICS
Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.
Have questions or thoughts? Let’s talk: mrgeopolitics@substack.com.