Introducing the “Geopolitical Dial, a new lens from Mr. Geopolitics to track the biggest geopolitical flashpoints - and provide insight into how they are shaping the globe.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

As US-Iran talks continue, two headlines today should give everybody pause. The first, from NBC, “Europe has maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left.” The second, from The Times, “Britain preparing for food shortages.”

A quick Mr. Geopolitics unpacking…

Approximately 75% of Europe’s jet fuel supply comes from the Middle East, particularly Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with around 40% flowing through the Strait of Hormuz itself. Without a steady supply of jet fuel, airlines would be grounded. However, European economic security is also on the line. To keep planes in the air, governments may need to divert oil from strategic reserves to create additional jet fuel, further exacerbating Europe’s energy crisis and leaving European states more vulnerable to future shocks. Adding to this, another hit to European balance sheets as jet fuel effectively doubles in cost to $1,838 per tonne, compared to less than $900 before the Iran war started in February. Part of the explosion in price is not only chaos in the Middle East but also the mechanics of American jet fuel deliveries to Europe, as US energy is significantly more expensive on global markets than Middle Eastern (or Russian) options (but is now the only option and the new benchmark).

Separately, the world is in the midst of a major period of food insecurity. This will affect the developed and developing world equally. At the core of this quiet emergency is that the fertilizer needed to grow food is paralyzed by the Iran war. Either the physical fertilizer itself cannot move (around 30% of global fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz). Or, the “input” to create fertilizer, natural gas, has become so expensive (prices are up 70% in Europe), that crop production suffers as farmers drop yields or raise prices that are then passed onto consumers. This is occurring as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere enter their “primary season” (May-October). Except, there is a knock-on effect here. Because gas and fertilizer prices are rising, farmers are switching to planting soy over corn (as soy is far less expensive to grow). However, by doing this, the seeds are being laid (no pun intended) for more expensive meat, as corn is the primary livestock feed. There are two paths forward for global food markets: more expensive food or major shortages (what the UK is preparing for).

This is the new state of play because of the chaos in the Middle East. And, it creates serious hurdles for a range of sectors, like tourism.

In the backdrop of all this, materials like rubber and aluminium are having their own moment. In India and Vietnam, the prices of natural rubber are up 30%, while aluminum is up 25%, making a range of inputs, from tires to construction, substantially more expensive.

None of this will reverse even if the US and Iran find peace, which is becoming hard to define as US President Donald Trump warns that a proposed 20-year moratorium on Iranian nuclear weapons is not enough. There is a several-month catch-up window, meaning in the best of circumstances, even if the fighting stops tomorrow, and pre-war energy production resumes (not possible, just look at Qatari gas fields), it will take several months for global supply to catch up to demand.

Put simply, the current crises are the new status quo.

The battlefield is no longer just the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf states, but what I am referring to as “EAM” (Energy, Agriculture, and Materials).

Unless huge amounts of dormant supply suddenly appear, restabilizing prices, a new geopolitics is beginning between nations, and EAM markets. This is why Russia has proposed BRICS create food baskets (an idea I first wrote about in 2022), indirectly meaning that BRICS nations could look after themselves by pooling resources (i.e., Moscow supplying fertilizer) even as the rest of the globe wobbles. In this new setup, Europe, Asia, and Africa face the biggest headwinds.

And, all of this is assuming the Iran war does not get worse. Should ceasefire talks break down, Iran is likely to shudder the Al-Mandeb Strait, returning the Red Sea to a battlefield and paralyzing the movement of goods through the Strait of Hormuz. This would force shippers to use alternative routes, including around Africa, increasing costs (and time), further raising total prices. Equally important is a new potential shift in Russia’s favor, putting Europe in an awkward position. As the US ends waivers for Russian oil purchases, should the Red Sea and Hormuz Strait both fall back into war, some shippers may turn to the Northern Sea Route, circling northern Russia, to bring goods from Asia to Europe, injecting them into ports in northern Europe. This would give Moscow extraordinary control over the movements of goods throughout Eurasia, particularly into Europe.

Strangely, the Iran war is far from over. The shockwaves are only now starting to form. And, considering the geoeconomics, somehow, the actual fighting may be nothing compared to what is to come, underpinned by EAM.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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The next geopolitical shocks boards must plan for.

GEOPOLITICAL FORESIGHT

Top 10 New Geopolitical Shocks: The Next 12-15 Months | Q2 2026

In Q2 2026, trust in the external systems and structures is almost gone. Nations are being forced to fend for themselves in a new geopolitical jungle.

The catalysts are clear: fractured globalization, war in the Middle East, and more. But the solutions are less black-and-white. If not America or China, who do nations turn to? If the energy emergency worsens, what will provide safety?

Suddenly, nothing guarantees stability. Suddenly, short-term needs outweigh long-term national vision.

To adapt, governments are on the verge of taking steps that few are prepared for - from AI to connectivity to finance. Their adversaries are on the hunt. Their power and position are in question. The only option is to strike before being struck.

As nations act radically, the DNA of markets across Eurasia, the Americas, and Africa is about to shift. The norms and principles that have guided economies are about to be overpowered by geopolitics.

The disruptions of Q2 2026 will force a realization in boardrooms worldwide: corporate destiny is no longer determined by internal planning, but by the desperate, reactive maneuvers of sovereign states. In this climate, nations no longer play by the rules of the market, they play for survival.

Navigating Q2 2026 Geopolitics

The Top 10 Geopolitical Shocks (Q2 2026) briefing reveals the hidden dangers surrounding resources, technology, supply chains, market access, and more.

Authored by renowned geopolitical strategist Abishur Prakash, this latest briefing distills almost 15 years of high-level advisory into actionable intelligence, giving leaders an unparalleled view of geopolitics today - and what’s next.

As the geopolitical alarm bells ring, this report serves as a compass, guiding investments, risk mitigation, and growth over the next 12 to 15 months (and beyond).

What’s Inside the Briefing:

• Top 10 Incoming Shocks: A deep dive into the top 10 geopolitical triggers that executives and policymakers need to prepare for throughout Q2 2026 and into the future.

• Pressure Points: A breakdown of the core drivers and themes reshaping geopolitics and geoeconomics.

• Strategic Takeaways: Strategies and recommendations to help organizations remain profitable and outplay what is to come.

The most disruptive, hidden risks. Dozens of data points. Powerful visuals. And much, much more.

Who Should Have This

• CEOs and corporate leadership navigating geopolitical upheaval

• Boards seeking to prepare for what’s next

• Executives managing strategy, expansion, partnerships, or supply chains

• Investors imagining the new geoeconomic environment

• Policymakers guiding economic and external decision-making

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Q2 Shocks Report

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Q2 Shocks + 1:1 Session

About the Author

The Q2 2026 Shocks briefing is produced by Abishur Prakash, known worldwide as Mr. Geopolitics. Since 2013, Prakash has been guiding global leaders through geopolitical shifts and transformations. He is the author of five books and the founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc., a strategic advisory firm in Toronto, Canada. His ideas have been featured in CNBC, Nikkei Asia, Scientific American, Politico, and more. Learn more about Abishur here.

Also Available:

• Quarterly Geopolitical Foresight: 10 Geopolitical Shocks Threatening Businesses In Q1 2026

• Monthly Geopolitical Foresight: Wild West: Future of a Broken Alliance

• Customized Foresight: Deep dives on a specific disruption or vector.

• Private Executive Briefings: Closed-door, tailored sessions with Abishur Prakash.

Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash / The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, and concepts. Any use, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

For all inquiries: abishur at mrgeopolitics dot com

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Many are trying to make sense of the past 48 hours. When the clock struck 8:00 pm EST on Tuesday, instead of sending Iran back to the “Stone Age,” as US President Donald Trump had warned, the US, Israel, and Iran had all agreed to a two-week ceasefire, including a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Except, within hours of the ceasefire, the situation quickly changed. Israel launched a deadly strike on Lebanon, killing over 250 people, causing Iran to say that ceasefire talks were inconsequential so long as Israel kept striking Lebanon. The IRGC launched a fresh round of strikes on Gulf states, including on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, critical to shift oil exports toward the Red Sea. The prized Hormuz Strait remained tightly closed. Then, the situation changed again. Israel said it would hold talks with Lebanon, while Iran said it was open to a gradual, albeit concentrated, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, depending on how talks with the US went in Pakistan.

These are a whirlwind of geopolitical events, many of which contradict each other. In all this, everybody is trying to answer the same questions: how did the situation change so dramatically? Is the war ending or not? And if the former, what is the new state of play in the world?

The answer to the first question (how did the situation change so dramatically?) is not black-and-white. While many have labeled America as the loser of the war, the truth is also that Iran could not sustain the fighting indefinitely. And while Tehran threatened to wipe out electricity throughout the region if the US struck energy infrastructure, Iran would have also fallen into historic chaos without bridges and power, becoming a crippled animal still swinging. Put simply, while America has not achieved much from this conflict (rather, it has lost a lot), Iran does not want to keep fighting this conflict if there is a way out. A ceasefire, at this moment, was a win-win. And no, the “madman theory” did not work. Rather, Iran agreed to a ceasefire, not out of fear but opportunity, sensing it could pause the war with the upper hand.

The answer to the second question (Is the war ending or not?) depends on four different events: whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens, whether Israel strikes Lebanon again, how US-Iran talks go in Pakistan, starting tomorrow (April 10), and whether a “sudden disruption” takes place. Based on Iran’s 10-point plan, actual progress may not be possible, as Tehran calls for the removal of all US sanctions, the right to enrich uranium, and Iran’s continued control over the Hormuz Strait. This is the polar opposite of US demands. Either the US and Iran will have multiple rounds of talks. Or, the first round of talks will end up in a stalemate, where no side can agree, raising the probability of the war restarting. However, the US does not want to restart military operations. There is no card Washington can play militarily that guarantees a defeat of the regime. If US strikes restart, it would draw America into an endless war, including with boots on the ground.

The answer to the third question (what is the new state of play in the world?) is quite simple: transformational. The Iran conflict has upended how the globe functions on a scale bigger than Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or the October 7th attacks. The Yuan-shipping corridor through the Hormuz is not going away. The enormous windfall that Russia has made is likely to persist well into the future. The Chinese optics of being the only pragmatic and stable economic superpower is unshakeable. The West is completely broken, just look at NATO, and the new atmosphere of the Middle East is one defined by war, not development or vision. Surrounding all this: a global energy emergency that does not end even if the war formally does. The Iran war has rewired the world.

The US-Iran conflict represents a geopolitical turning point for Eurasia.

There is no going back to how things used to be. The next 72 hours are critical. Yet, strangely, whether or not the ceasefire holds does not change what is looming: a complete redesign of alliances, connectivity, and trade. And a world stage where America is viewed very differently than it once was.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Short of some breakthrough in the coming hours, it is almost guaranteed that the US will strike Iran’s critical infrastructure tonight. While President Trump has specifically called out Iranian bridges and power plants, I suspect there are other targets too, including remaining dual-use factories or strategic railways that connect Iran to the external world.

The end goal will be to indefinitely paralyze Iranian society to the point where millions revolt and overthrow the regime. But remember, regime change was never the objective. The objective was…

It is possible that within the next 24-48 hours, America will declare victory and exit the conflict. Yes, that would mean the US-Israeli campaign ends, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Of course, an “exit” is not simple (explained below). Because if the US follows through with sending Iran back to the Stone Age, Iran will respond in kind:

• Striking electrical grids, desalination plants, schools, waste treatment facilities, strategic highways, sites housing reserves of food, oil, water, and more throughout the Middle East

• Iranian submarines severing internet cables in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and Indian Ocean, causing what I call a “tech blackout” throughout the region as services go offline

• Through the Houthis, Iran turns the Red Sea into a warzone by closing the Mandeb Strait, creating a dual trade crisis

• The IRGC going unhinged, sending ground forces into neighboring states or attempting to strike US bases in Europe with long-range weapons

The Iranian response will define how much the US can actually exit the conflict.

Remember, the US has a formal mutual defense treaty with Qatar. And an implicit obligation to defend Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain. If these nations go dark, their first call will be to the White House. Not just to restore power but to retaliate against Iran.

Should Iran destroy critical tech infrastructure, it could cascade into a tech-driven economic and financial crisis in New York and Silicon Valley. Can America truly “exit” the war if its technology sector is under attack?

However, it is the third strategy - closing Mandeb Strait - that could almost guarantee the war cannot end. And, that the war goes global.

The moment Mandeb Strait closes, so does the Suez Canal. The moment Suez closes, it exponentially raises the likelihood that Europe will enter the war. Why? Because around 10% of European goods flows through the Suez Canal. This includes 90% of Qatari LNG imports.

The very help that America has been demanding from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and others could come naturally when Mandeb Strait closes. The Japanese and South Koreans may also send their militaries, as both imports (90% of Japanese oil imports flow through Hormuz) and exports (Asian goods to Europe via Suez) are held hostage by war, compounding current pressures.

Of course, Trump remains highly unpredictable. He could very well walk away from Mandeb and Hormuz in ruthless fashion. However, while Trump may be livid at Europe and Asia, he is steadfast in his support for the Middle East. The US-Arab alliance could be what keeps America’s guns firing at “Iran” - a term that is becoming harder and harder to define. And, US ground troops in Iran remain on the table (and highly likely).

Geopolitics is never black-and-white or certain. There are always blind spots and curveballs. Perhaps revolution actually does sweep Iran after tonight. Perhaps the existing regime collapses. But, perhaps is not definitive. What is definitive is that Iran remains determined to fight. And, after tonight, the US has few good options if the status quo does not change.

Strangely, the US may be hoping tonight determines how the war ends. But, for Iran, it could determine how the war continues.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

Watch on YouTube ⬇️

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Have questions or thoughts? Let’s talk: mrgeopolitics@substack.com

Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission

Abishur’s key message: Iran has challenged the dollar on a scale that even China has not, “weaponizing geography” to induce a new financial order.

The Iran war is in limbo. Not for Iran, but for the US. After more than three weeks of fighting and turmoil across the Middle East, extending into the Indian Ocean (Diego Garcia), US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday (March 22) for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or America will destroy the nation’s power plants. It was a double threat: destroy critical energy infrastructure, and throw the nation into social and economic chaos.

However, just before the 48-hour deadline struck, Trump unveiled that he had held “very good” talks with Iran on ending the war, and was giving Iran another five days to reopen Hormuz. Equally important, the US is negotiating with Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, not the new Ayatollah, who may or may not be alive. Remember, this is the same Ghalibaf that threatened “irreversible strikes” on Gulf infrastructure if the US attacks Iranian power plants. Previously, Ghalibaf also labeled holders of US Treasury bonds as legitimate targets.

Here is where things become “muddy.” Trump is holding talks on ending the war with the same leadership he previously called on people to revolt against. Almost one month into the biggest war in the region since 2003, and nothing has changed. The Iranian regime remains intact, the military has not turned on the government, the people are not revolting, Iran is not isolated, and Tehran has completely redefined asymmetric warfare through low-cost drones, foreign intelligence, and surgical strikes on Gulf states - the brunt of which has been absorbed by the UAE.

What the US and Israel expected would happen on February 28 has not materialized. Now, as the global economy flashes red, and the appetite for war drops, Washington needs an off-ramp. Suddenly, it is the US that needs this conflict to end. But Iran’s resolve to keep fighting has not been broken. Adding to the uncertainty of what happens next is the Pentagon’s request for $200 billion in additional funding for the Iran conflict, which may signal that US military planners are unsure how long the diplomatic path can actually hold.

In all of this, a geopolitical message is being sent to the world: the most powerful nation has failed in toppling one of the most sanctioned regimes in all history through military force.

And, Iran did not do anything “surprising.” The same maneuvers that the US has had decades to prepare for like Iran cordoning off the Strait of Hormuz or striking nations that aid America, are exactly the cards Tehran played. And they worked. Nothing out of the ordinary has happened. How is this the outcome of 20+ years of geostrategic planning around a conflict with Iran?

Regardless of what the US says, the interpretation of the world is that US hard power has clear limits. It worked in Venezuela. It will likely work in Cuba. But not with semi-powerful states like Iran. And definitely not with the likes of China or Russia.

If there was every a moment when the Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang axis felt emboldened, and strong enough to take on the West, it is right now.

The other message is that major geoeconomic upheaval has begun.

Not only did Iran squeeze Hormuz, it went one step further, proposing that trade vessels that traverse the chokepoint settle their accounts in Yuan, not USD. In tandem, the vessels that Iran gave safe passage to were overwhelmingly BRICS (i.e., China, India, Malaysia) or China-centric (Pakistan). Put differently, those aligned with America were in the cold. This is the West’s game turned against the West, where Western capitals have used geopolitical alignment to guide economic dealmaking. Now, Iran, flanked by China and Russia, used the same playbook.

Surrounding all this, the West is broken. For the first time in modern history, Western allies have refused to come to America’s aid as US soldiers perish and missiles fly. The most sacrosanct commitment between Western allies has been broken. It is no longer speculation to say that NATO could very well be on its last legs. After all, if Europe (and Asia) did not show up to defend the US, why would America show up to defend Europe (or Asia)? This is no longer a “what if” scenario. This is exactly what has occurred - and is now looming.

Contrary to what many have said, there are two wars with Iran.

The first is the military campaign led by the US and Israel. The US wants to end this, sooner rather than later. However, the Israeli and Iranian variables remain grey. For Tel Aviv, giving the Iranian regime breathing space may be unacceptable. And for Iran, even if the US-Israeli strikes stop, there is nothing stopping it from launching drone strikes across the Middle East indefinitely, turning a shadow-war-turned public-war back into a shadow war through drone warfare.

The second front, however, is everything else. Even if the military fighting stops, the economic battlefield has only just begun.

Iran has challenged the dollar on a scale that even China has not, weaponizing geography to enact a new financial order.

Not only has the Yuan been provided with a historic geopolitical opening, but the BRICS group, on shaky ground before the Iran war began, has been given new life. And, surrounding all this, Western economic security is in the air as a growing number of LNG tankers make a U-turn mid-Atlantic, diverting their supplies from Europe to Asia.

Many have been trying to decipher the “endgame” of the Iran war. Strangely, the endgame is a return to the pregame but on steroids: the Iranian regime remains in power, but fights a new kind of war with energy, currency, blocs, and geography.

The dawn of new geopolitics corresponds with the dawn of unorthodox behavior. Geography is being weaponized (again). What has begun in the Middle East will not remain limited to the region. Across the globe, everybody is observing and learning. The lesson they are being taught is that superpowers have limits, and that even in the 21st century, the creative use of land and resources can change the course of war.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission

As Hungary caps the price of fuel, after oil prices hit $119 a barrel, nearing the $150 “crisis line” that Qatar previously warned about, the European Union (EU) has begun discussions around how to curb exploding energy prices.

For the EU, the squeeze is not just the Iran war, as less than 10% of the bloc’s liquified natural gas (LNG) flows from the Middle East, mainly Qatar. Europe faces a three-fold crunch: its own ruling to phase out Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, as Moscow still supplies anywhere from 15% to 20% of Europe’s gas; total European storage levels for gas falling below 30% of their capacity, at a moment when European natural gas prices climb a staggering 70%, making new reserves and supply extremely expensive; and Europe’s own reluctance to increase gas imports from the US, a dependency that could be weaponized down the line.

There are no “good” options as Brussels discusses financial support for certain sectors, continent-wide energy caps, or even cutting taxes temporarily. A stone’s throw from EU borders, the UK faces its own nightmare: the nation only has two days of gas storage, and a former advisor is warning the country to prepare for “fuel rationing.”

Outside of Europe, the world is in its own scramble.

Thailand is burning through $32 million a day to subsidize diesel, a figure that could reach $320 million by March 18th, all from the nation’s state oil fund. An Indian restaurant union is warning that without new supplies of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), around 50% of hotels and restaurants in Mumbai could shut down within days. For now, some restaurants have slashed their menu offerings. And, Africa is bracing itself for Gulf investments to dwindle or disappear as Arab capitals keep capital on hand and cancel obligations abroad, unsure of what comes next, a major disruption to African development plans.

The world is entering an unprecedented energy emergency that eclipses that which started after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So far, nations are unlocking reserves, doling out cash, or moving military assets to try to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. None of this is guaranteed to work.

The new energy crisis is centered on two parts.

The first is the actual supply of energy to the world, which is paralyzed. On March 14, the Strait of Hormuz marked its first day of zero activity, meaning not a single vessel traversed the chokepoint. There are rumors that Chinese and Indian ships may have safe passage, alleviating “some” Asian pressure. Except, the energy crisis is already bigger than Iran. There is Russia’s threat to restrict energy flows to Europe, China’s move to limit jet fuel supplies to Australia, and warnings, like in Pakistan, where LNG supplies will run out by April 14, according to current storage levels. Nobody knows what the supply situation will look like next. Will US gas exports surge? Can Australian LNG save the day? How far is the world from a dual gas-oil crisis?

Second is what happens as the energy crisis worsens. How do governments shield their economies and societies?

This brings the focus to the next state policies. At a moment when governments are stepping into the economy, from technology to trade (geopolitical capitalism), the state is likely to step in at this moment too. The world may be on the verge of “geopolitical subsidies” - where governments continuously subsidize sectors and businesses because of geopolitical turmoil, starting with the burgeoning energy emergency.

There may be little choice.

Without gas and oil supplies stabilizing, businesses will need continuous assistance. Sporadic loans can only go so far. And the energy situation is not the last geopolitical shock. What may be looming is a new dawn, where governments open the taps of capital - credit, refunds, grants, bailouts, investments - to keep their economic engines online. In tandem, some nations are likely to use the current emergency as the trigger to build more reserves, be it oil, semiconductors, or batteries. The next subsidies may not be financial, but actual resources themselves, supplied by the state.

On some level, the subsidies have already started, like what is happening in Thailand. However, geopolitical subsidies go beyond subsidizing diesel, petrol, or gas. They are about governments taking a permanent position of permanently subsidizing the resources that businesses need, and which geopolitics is squeezing.

Geopolitical subsidies further intertwine the state and economy. They point to governments accepting that organizations are ill-prepared for what is happening and looming. Once they begin, the state will be permanently supporting companies, a continuous pipeline. For now, governments may assist without question. In the future, might they demand something in return?

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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With every passing day, the war in Iran is worsening. Now, a drone strike in Azerbaijan threatens to draw in Central Asia, already under siege from the Ukraine-Russia drone war hitting oil export terminals and tankers in the Black Sea.

Not even one week into the fighting, with weeks more to go, all kinds of unknowns surround the latest Middle Eastern war.

The biggest, though, is not being asked. Should Iran’s leadership feel they are losing the war, how will they end the war on their terms?

Retreat and surrender are not on the table. The Iranian regime will fight till the end. If they calculate defeat, the end result will not be capitulation to US and Israeli forces. It could be activating seismic options that inflict the most damage on the region and US interests.

There are several directions this could take:

• Striking nuclear, electricity, and desalination facilities across the region, particularly in Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, to destabilize societies and cause long-term fallout (i.e., a new Fukushima or Chernobyl, triggering a water crisis). The desalination threat is particularly dangerous. In the UAE, for instance, 42% of drinking water comes from desalination plants. In Israel, it is around 86%.

• Attacking apartment complexes or residential neighborhoods housing the families of US/Israeli soldiers, putting tens of thousands of civilian lives at risk

• Mass cyber attacks that cripple US critical infrastructure, particularly water processing plants, which have been breached by Iranian hackers in the past

• Going after “diamond projects” like Saudi Arabia’s NEOM megacity that cause economic bleeding or striking internet cables across the region that sever connectivity

• Expansion of Strait of Hormuz blockade to the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, creating a “red zone” that stretches from the southern tip of Iraq to the Arabian Sea

• Activation of sleeper cells across the Western world, driven by groups like Hezbollah, threatening a new phase of terrorism and instability from Europe to the US

There will not be an “announcement” that Iran is losing the war. Instead, the signals of defeat will be in the destabilizing actions Tehran takes over the coming weeks. The more chaotic and unhinged Iran becomes, the closer a defeat may be nearing.

Behind these moves, the Iranian regime could take other steps that echo into the future, such as smuggling advanced weaponry or biological and nuclear weapons development to various groups across the globe, handing them keys to chaos.

There are also the "leaks” that Iran has constantly teased in the past. If Iranian hacking collectives actually have compromising information on Western leaders, a dead man’s switch could be activated if the fighting crosses a certain threshold (i.e., the next Supreme Leader is also killed).

And, connected to all this, Iran's entire ground army is sitting idle, watching their nation come under fire. From the Basij, a state-backed militia with anywhere from 200,000 to millions of members, to the IRGC, with around 190,000 soldiers, the more desperate Iran becomes, the higher chance of deadly maneuvers, like an attempted ground invasion of neighboring states - including Arab nations across the Persian Gulf. Yes, an attempt by Iran to invade other nations by land could be on the table.

So far, most have questioned when the war will end. But, this is the wrong way to approach the conflict. It is not so much whether Iran will lose the war (high probability), but what Iran does as US and Israeli forces gain more and more control of the nation. The regime still has at least a dozen ways to sow chaos. They will not go silently into the night. They may attempt to end the war on their terms.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission

Like you, I woke this morning to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. My initial analysis, shared below in bullet points. Will be going deeper as the situation evolves and more information comes to light…

• War has come to Asia with a bang… There are now two geographically back-to-back wars taking place: US-Iran, and Pakistan-Afghanistan. Last year, three wars took place over the summer. Now, in Q1, two conflicts have ignited. These are connected. The bonhomie between the US and Pakistan has given Islamabad carte blanche in certain respects. With the US occupied in Iran, Pakistan could double-down on strikes against the Taliban. Equally important is the potential activation of the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual defense treaty after Iranian missiles hit Riyadh.

• No coincidence that this has occurred on Friday night/Saturday morning, when global markets are closed. There is a clear “desensitization window” forming. By Monday, investors may not be as shell-shocked by the war in the Middle East compared to if the US and Israel struck Iran on Monday or next Wednesday. Of course, much depends on where the fighting goes next. Should Iran mine the Strait of Hormuz or strike regional energy sites, markets could be in crisis within the next 48 hours.

• There is complete ambiguity as to when regime-change targets are met and the “situation” is handed over to the “people” (and how those who support the revolution are backed against those who do not). As Israel says there are “signs” that Ayatollah Khamenei is no more, within the coming days, Iran’s top leadership may be eliminated. After that, the focus turns on rogue commanders, less-known political leaders, remaining military branches (i.e,, navy), and the industrial base. Once these goals have been met, the US and Israel could pull back and tell protestors to take control of the nation. This is not guaranteed, and sets the stage for real civil strife. Already, massive pro-government protests are taking place throughout Iran.

• The Iranian regime is on its last legs. This makes it the most dangerous kind of animal: wounded and cornered. Much of Iran’s rhetoric will now be tested: underground missile cities, the alleged thousands of ballistic missiles, stockpiles of Shahed drones, dozens if not hundreds of swarm attack boats (including civilian fishing vessels), and of course, cordoning off the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian leadership has to decide whether to use its “inventory” as the US and Israel seek to topple the regime, or hold-off and hope that de-escalatory moves and attrition allow the regime some kind of survival.

• Once again, China and Russia watch from the sidelines as their “axis” falls apart. First Venezuela. Now Iran. For China, this is more critical, as around 15% of its crude oil comes from Iran (while Venezuela was around 4% or 5%). This shrinks the Beijing-Moscow club. Those “key allies” that China and Russia could depend on are disappearing, now limited to just North Korea. However, Beijing and Moscow may also exploit the situation. With the US eye fully on Iran for the next week or two, Russia could seize more land in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the US will want to ensure stability on other fronts, meaning China could demand greater concessions from the US in the runup to US President Donald Trump’s visit to China the end of March. Already, US customers are being turned away from critical metals as China refuses to reopen the taps, and the US still has not cleared any H200 chips from being sold to Chinese customers.

• Global energy production is in a bind. This is not only about oil supplies. Consider that Iran produces around 3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). In the scenario that 100% of this production goes offline, Saudi Arabia has spare capacity of anywhere from 1.8 million bpd to 2.9 million bpd, while the UAE has 1 million bpd spare capacity - meaning Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could pump out more oil if needed. The bigger worry is whether energy transit is disrupted. This is not just about the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis could be activated, converting the Red Sea back into a battlefield. And the risk of another 2019 incident, where Houthis struck Saudi Arabian oil production, shuddering 50% of activity, remains high across the region.

• For now, most nations are biting their tongue beyond issuing calls for deescalation or opposing the joint US-Israeli move against Iran. But, as the situation evolves, the Muslim-world in particular could demand a pause in hostilities or threaten action, specifically against Israel. They may view this, less as a crackdown on an “evil regime” and more as an extension of Gaza. The US has to once-again carefully balance its ties with Tel Aviv with its increasingly strategic relationships like Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, or parts of Africa.

-Abishur Prakash aka “Mr. Geopolitics”

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Mr. Geopolitics is the property of Abishur Prakash/The Geopolitical Business, Inc., and is protected under Canadian Copyright Law. This includes, but is not limited to: ideas, perspectives, expressions, concepts, etc. Any use of the insights, including sharing or interpretation, partly or wholly, requires explicit written permission.